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Epidemiology of hip fracture in Belarus: development of a country-specific FRAX model and its comparison to neighboring country models

Epidemiology of hip fracture in Belarus: development of a country-specific FRAX model and its comparison to neighboring country models
Epidemiology of hip fracture in Belarus: development of a country-specific FRAX model and its comparison to neighboring country models

Summary: Fracture probabilities resulting from the newly generated FRAX model for Belarus based on regional estimates of the hip fracture incidence were compared with FRAX models of neighboring countries. Differences between the country-specific FRAX patterns and the rank orders of fracture probabilities were modest. Objective: This paper describes the epidemiology of hip fractures in Belarus that was used to develop the country-specific fracture prediction FRAX® tool and illustrates its features compared to models for the neighboring countries of Poland, Russia, and Lithuania. Methods: We carried out a population-based study in a region of Belarus (the city of Mozyr) representing approximately 1.2% of the country’s population. We aimed to identify all hip fractures in 2011–2012 from hospital registers and primary care sources. Age- and sex-specific incidence and national mortality rates were incorporated into a FRAX model for Belarus. Fracture probabilities were compared with those derived from FRAX models in neighboring countries. Results: The estimated number of hip fractures nationwide in persons over the age of 50 years for 2015 was 8250 in 2015 and is predicted to increase to 12,918 in 2050. The annual incidence of fragility hip fractures in individuals aged 50 years or more was 24.6/10,000 for women and 14.6/10,000 for men, standardized to the world population. The comparison with FRAX models in neighboring countries showed that hip fracture probabilities in men and women in Belarus were similar to those in Poland, Russia, and Lithuania. The difference in incidence rates between the surveys including or excluding data from primary care suggested that 29.1% of patients sustaining a hip fracture were not hospitalized and, therefore, did not receive specialized medical care. Conclusion: A substantial proportion of hip fractures in Belarus does not come to hospital attention. The FRAX model should enhance accuracy of determining fracture probability among the Belarus population and help guide decisions about treatment.

Epidemiology, Fracture probability, FRAX, Hip fracture
1862-3522
Ramanau, H.
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Chernyanin, I.
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Rudenka, E.
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Lesnyak, O.
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Zakroyeva, A.
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Bilezikian, J.P.
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Johansson, H.
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Harvey, N.C.
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McCloskey, E.V.
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Kanis, J.A.
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Ramanau, H.
a542e032-a922-4328-98b5-4ab667c06a06
Chernyanin, I.
907e7cdf-5ba2-43c3-a7a1-cf8b1f5150b6
Rudenka, E.
c07406b1-09db-4b4f-a26f-a9eb9f3b39a6
Lesnyak, O.
79b8479e-2590-4bc1-8fbe-1f5941edc13e
Zakroyeva, A.
35caae30-2d23-4fa6-a96d-af08da40f4ee
Bilezikian, J.P.
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Johansson, H.
05aa5476-bcb9-4b97-905e-00f1dfd9d691
Harvey, N.C.
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McCloskey, E.V.
e968a69f-27b8-4568-987d-5d8dbbdff3fd
Kanis, J.A.
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Ramanau, H., Chernyanin, I., Rudenka, E., Lesnyak, O., Zakroyeva, A., Bilezikian, J.P., Johansson, H., Harvey, N.C., McCloskey, E.V. and Kanis, J.A. (2018) Epidemiology of hip fracture in Belarus: development of a country-specific FRAX model and its comparison to neighboring country models. Archives of Osteoporosis, 13 (1), [42]. (doi:10.1007/s11657-018-0454-4).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Summary: Fracture probabilities resulting from the newly generated FRAX model for Belarus based on regional estimates of the hip fracture incidence were compared with FRAX models of neighboring countries. Differences between the country-specific FRAX patterns and the rank orders of fracture probabilities were modest. Objective: This paper describes the epidemiology of hip fractures in Belarus that was used to develop the country-specific fracture prediction FRAX® tool and illustrates its features compared to models for the neighboring countries of Poland, Russia, and Lithuania. Methods: We carried out a population-based study in a region of Belarus (the city of Mozyr) representing approximately 1.2% of the country’s population. We aimed to identify all hip fractures in 2011–2012 from hospital registers and primary care sources. Age- and sex-specific incidence and national mortality rates were incorporated into a FRAX model for Belarus. Fracture probabilities were compared with those derived from FRAX models in neighboring countries. Results: The estimated number of hip fractures nationwide in persons over the age of 50 years for 2015 was 8250 in 2015 and is predicted to increase to 12,918 in 2050. The annual incidence of fragility hip fractures in individuals aged 50 years or more was 24.6/10,000 for women and 14.6/10,000 for men, standardized to the world population. The comparison with FRAX models in neighboring countries showed that hip fracture probabilities in men and women in Belarus were similar to those in Poland, Russia, and Lithuania. The difference in incidence rates between the surveys including or excluding data from primary care suggested that 29.1% of patients sustaining a hip fracture were not hospitalized and, therefore, did not receive specialized medical care. Conclusion: A substantial proportion of hip fractures in Belarus does not come to hospital attention. The FRAX model should enhance accuracy of determining fracture probability among the Belarus population and help guide decisions about treatment.

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Accepted/In Press date: 25 March 2018
e-pub ahead of print date: 17 April 2018
Published date: 1 December 2018
Keywords: Epidemiology, Fracture probability, FRAX, Hip fracture

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 420169
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/420169
ISSN: 1862-3522
PURE UUID: 5f0039e8-3a28-4c4d-a25c-47d71c7fe840
ORCID for N.C. Harvey: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-8194-2512

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Date deposited: 30 Apr 2018 16:30
Last modified: 26 Nov 2021 02:48

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Contributors

Author: H. Ramanau
Author: I. Chernyanin
Author: E. Rudenka
Author: O. Lesnyak
Author: A. Zakroyeva
Author: J.P. Bilezikian
Author: H. Johansson
Author: N.C. Harvey ORCID iD
Author: E.V. McCloskey
Author: J.A. Kanis

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