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A model for assessing iceberg hazard

A model for assessing iceberg hazard
A model for assessing iceberg hazard

With the polar regions opening up to more marine activities but iceberg numbers more likely to increase than decline as a result of global warming, the risk from icebergs to shipping and offshore facilities is increasing. The NW Atlantic iceberg hazard has been well monitored by the International Ice Patrol for a century, but many other polar regions have little detailed climatological knowledge of the iceberg risk. Here, we develop a modelling approach to assessing iceberg hazard. This uses the region of the Falklands Plateau and its shipping routes for a case study, but the approach has general geographical applicability and can be used for assessing iceberg hazard for routes or fixed locations. The iceberg risk for a number of locations selected from the main shipping routes in the SW Atlantic is assessed by using an iceberg model, forced by the output from a high-resolution ocean model. The iceberg model was seeded with icebergs around the edge of the modelled region using a number of scenarios for the seeding distribution, based on a combination of idealised, modelled and observed iceberg fluxes from the Southern Ocean. This enabled us to determine measures of iceberg risk linked to a mix of starting location and the likelihood of icebergs being encountered in such a position. For our study area, the main area of iceberg risk is linked to the East Falklands Current, but small, yet nonzero, risk covers much of the east and north of the region.

Falklands, Iceberg, Iceberg hazard, Modelling, Risk assessment
0921-030X
1113-1136
Bigg, Grant R.
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Cropper, T. E.
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O’Neill, Clare K.
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Arnold, Alex K.
3a9291b2-a453-4e19-acb9-8cab862b34db
Fleming, A. H.
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Marsh, R.
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Ivchenko, V.
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Fournier, Nicolas
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Osborne, Mike
c89670bf-1a08-453c-9dfe-5e768e943a39
Stephens, Robin
9872f5e2-963f-4eec-b788-4c5fb8ef2d45
Bigg, Grant R.
97b5070a-469e-4475-87d3-bcf8d62348e6
Cropper, T. E.
1f4bb4e7-b5c2-489b-82b0-83e8739efff0
O’Neill, Clare K.
1be89323-986a-4d41-b08e-dc674c2b3cdc
Arnold, Alex K.
3a9291b2-a453-4e19-acb9-8cab862b34db
Fleming, A. H.
14551d72-6aa8-444b-bbdd-18d3eb1dcf8a
Marsh, R.
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Ivchenko, V.
3988bc16-175d-4249-bc0e-0b096cc7b3a6
Fournier, Nicolas
a32c82a3-685b-4b6a-9624-29a8094abf9c
Osborne, Mike
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Stephens, Robin
9872f5e2-963f-4eec-b788-4c5fb8ef2d45

Bigg, Grant R., Cropper, T. E., O’Neill, Clare K., Arnold, Alex K., Fleming, A. H., Marsh, R., Ivchenko, V., Fournier, Nicolas, Osborne, Mike and Stephens, Robin (2018) A model for assessing iceberg hazard. Natural Hazards, 92 (2), 1113-1136. (doi:10.1007/s11069-018-3243-x).

Record type: Article

Abstract

With the polar regions opening up to more marine activities but iceberg numbers more likely to increase than decline as a result of global warming, the risk from icebergs to shipping and offshore facilities is increasing. The NW Atlantic iceberg hazard has been well monitored by the International Ice Patrol for a century, but many other polar regions have little detailed climatological knowledge of the iceberg risk. Here, we develop a modelling approach to assessing iceberg hazard. This uses the region of the Falklands Plateau and its shipping routes for a case study, but the approach has general geographical applicability and can be used for assessing iceberg hazard for routes or fixed locations. The iceberg risk for a number of locations selected from the main shipping routes in the SW Atlantic is assessed by using an iceberg model, forced by the output from a high-resolution ocean model. The iceberg model was seeded with icebergs around the edge of the modelled region using a number of scenarios for the seeding distribution, based on a combination of idealised, modelled and observed iceberg fluxes from the Southern Ocean. This enabled us to determine measures of iceberg risk linked to a mix of starting location and the likelihood of icebergs being encountered in such a position. For our study area, the main area of iceberg risk is linked to the East Falklands Current, but small, yet nonzero, risk covers much of the east and north of the region.

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More information

Accepted/In Press date: 22 February 2018
e-pub ahead of print date: 2 March 2018
Published date: 1 June 2018
Keywords: Falklands, Iceberg, Iceberg hazard, Modelling, Risk assessment

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 421394
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/421394
ISSN: 0921-030X
PURE UUID: ffeb26d1-f89c-4a1f-84c6-61e8b323ec57

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Date deposited: 08 Jun 2018 16:30
Last modified: 13 Mar 2019 18:24

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Contributors

Author: Grant R. Bigg
Author: T. E. Cropper
Author: Clare K. O’Neill
Author: Alex K. Arnold
Author: A. H. Fleming
Author: R. Marsh
Author: V. Ivchenko
Author: Nicolas Fournier
Author: Mike Osborne
Author: Robin Stephens

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