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Rangeland livelihood strategies under varying climate regimes: Model insights from southern Kenya

Rangeland livelihood strategies under varying climate regimes: Model insights from southern Kenya
Rangeland livelihood strategies under varying climate regimes: Model insights from southern Kenya

Rangelands throughout sub-Saharan Africa are currently undergoing two major pressures: climate change (through altered rainfall and seasonality patterns) and habitat fragmentation (brought by land use change driven by land demand for agriculture and conservation). Here we explore these dimensions, investigating the impact of land use change decisions, by pastoralists in southern Kenya rangelands, on human well-being and animal densities using an agent-based model. The constructed agent-based model uses input biomass data simulated by the Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS) dynamic vegetation model and parameterized with data from literature. Scenarios of land use change under different rainfall years, land tenure types and levels of wildlife conservation support were simulated. Reflecting reality, our results show livestock grazing as the predominant land use that changes with precipitation and land tenure leading to varying livelihood strategies. For example, agriculture is the most common livelihood in wet years and conservation levels increase with increasing support of wildlife conservation initiatives. Our model demonstrates the complex and multiple interactions between pastoralists, land management and the environment. We highlight the importance of understanding the conditions driving the sustainability of semi-arid rangelands and the communities they support, and the role of external actors, such as wildlife conservation investors, in East Africa.

Agent-based-model, Climate change, Conservation, Grazing, Pastoralists, Precipitation, Savannahs, Social-ecological systems
2009-2415
Kariuki, Rebecca
e7139262-ab05-4264-9e40-7b6917735e19
Willcock, Simon
89d9767e-8076-4b21-be9d-a964f5cc85d7
Marchant, Rob
d11d2a13-01e2-42c4-b015-11c35ad528cf
Kariuki, Rebecca
e7139262-ab05-4264-9e40-7b6917735e19
Willcock, Simon
89d9767e-8076-4b21-be9d-a964f5cc85d7
Marchant, Rob
d11d2a13-01e2-42c4-b015-11c35ad528cf

Kariuki, Rebecca, Willcock, Simon and Marchant, Rob (2018) Rangeland livelihood strategies under varying climate regimes: Model insights from southern Kenya. Land, 7 (2), [47]. (doi:10.3390/land7020047).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Rangelands throughout sub-Saharan Africa are currently undergoing two major pressures: climate change (through altered rainfall and seasonality patterns) and habitat fragmentation (brought by land use change driven by land demand for agriculture and conservation). Here we explore these dimensions, investigating the impact of land use change decisions, by pastoralists in southern Kenya rangelands, on human well-being and animal densities using an agent-based model. The constructed agent-based model uses input biomass data simulated by the Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS) dynamic vegetation model and parameterized with data from literature. Scenarios of land use change under different rainfall years, land tenure types and levels of wildlife conservation support were simulated. Reflecting reality, our results show livestock grazing as the predominant land use that changes with precipitation and land tenure leading to varying livelihood strategies. For example, agriculture is the most common livelihood in wet years and conservation levels increase with increasing support of wildlife conservation initiatives. Our model demonstrates the complex and multiple interactions between pastoralists, land management and the environment. We highlight the importance of understanding the conditions driving the sustainability of semi-arid rangelands and the communities they support, and the role of external actors, such as wildlife conservation investors, in East Africa.

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land-07-00047 - Version of Record
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More information

Accepted/In Press date: 10 April 2018
e-pub ahead of print date: 12 April 2018
Published date: 1 June 2018
Keywords: Agent-based-model, Climate change, Conservation, Grazing, Pastoralists, Precipitation, Savannahs, Social-ecological systems

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 421506
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/421506
ISSN: 2009-2415
PURE UUID: 1ee75b7e-c642-467d-a7d4-d76270676370

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 14 Jun 2018 16:30
Last modified: 07 Oct 2020 00:41

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