Point optimal testing with roots that are functionally local to unity

Abstract

Limit theory for regressions involving local to unit roots (LURs) is now used extensively in time series econometric work, establishing power properties for unit root and cointegration tests, assisting the construction of uniform confidence intervals for autoregressive coefficients, and enabling the development of methods robust to departures from unit roots. The present paper shows how to generalize LUR asymptotics to cases where the localized departure from unity is a time varying function rather than a constant. Such a functional local unit root (FLUR) model has much greater generality and encompasses many cases of additional interest that appear in practical work, including structural break formulations that admit subperiods of unit root, local stationary and local explosive behavior within a given sample. Point optimal FLUR tests are constructed in the paper to accommodate such cases and demonstrate how the power envelope changes in situations of practical interest. Against FLUR alternatives, conventional constant point optimal tests can be asymptotically infinitely deficient in power, with poor finite sample power perfor- mance particularly when the departure from unity occurs early in the sample period. New analytic explanation for this phenomenon is provided. Simulation results are reported and some implications for empirical practice are examined

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ORCID for Peter Phillips: orcid.org/0000-0003-2341-0451

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