Offshore cable optimization by probabilistic thermal risk estimation

Hernandez Colin, Maria Angelica and Pilgrim, James (2018) Offshore cable optimization by probabilistic thermal risk estimation. Probabilistic methods applied to power systems, PMAPS 2018, , Boise, United States. 24 Jun - 30 Aug 2018. 6 pp .

Record type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)

Abstract

This paper presents a probabilistic methodology for the estimation of cable temperature exceedance 6h, 12h and 24h ahead. The use of this method with the dynamic calculation of cable temperature can enable increases in the amount of power transferred from offshore wind farm installations by estimating the likelihood of the cable exceeding its temperature limit (90°C for XLPE). The methodology is based on historical data from the offshore wind farm site and a Monte Carlo Analysis. The estimations of risk can be used as a decision tool to avoid curtailment of power generation when the load is higher than the continuous rating but the calculated risk of exceeding 90°C is acceptably low. Increments of 7%, 9.9% and 13.7% over the continuous rating of the cable are studied considering three lengths of training sets. The simulated results show that the temperature estimations are consistent with the year of testing data in as much as 98.9% of the time. The application of the proposed methodology could represent 93GWh of additional energy delivery in one year for the case mentioned above.

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