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Multi-level emulation of complex climate model responses to boundary forcing data

Multi-level emulation of complex climate model responses to boundary forcing data
Multi-level emulation of complex climate model responses to boundary forcing data

Climate model components involve both high-dimensional input and output fields. It is desirable to efficiently generate spatio-temporal outputs of these models for applications in integrated assessment modelling or to assess the statistical relationship between such sets of inputs and outputs, for example, uncertainty analysis. However, the need for efficiency often compromises the fidelity of output through the use of low complexity models. Here, we develop a technique which combines statistical emulation with a dimensionality reduction technique to emulate a wide range of outputs from an atmospheric general circulation model, PLASIM, as functions of the boundary forcing prescribed by the ocean component of a lower complexity climate model, GENIE-1. Although accurate and detailed spatial information on atmospheric variables such as precipitation and wind speed is well beyond the capability of GENIE-1’s energy-moisture balance model of the atmosphere, this study demonstrates that the output of this model is useful in predicting PLASIM’s spatio-temporal fields through multi-level emulation. Meaningful information from the fast model, GENIE-1 was extracted by utilising the correlation between variables of the same type in the two models and between variables of different types in PLASIM. We present here the construction and validation of several PLASIM variable emulators and discuss their potential use in developing a hybrid model with statistical components.

Intermediate complexity model, Model hierarchy, Multi-level emulators, Probabilistic prediction, Spatio-temporal data
0930-7575
1-27
Tran, Giang T.
96da2b45-b395-4a27-b328-423f4d31becd
Oliver, Kevin I.C.
588b11c6-4d0c-4c59-94e2-255688474987
Holden, Philip B.
007e7f65-7cba-4117-bea8-bcd2caa38459
Edwards, Neil R.
9b7ab7c6-6229-4522-9780-1c24470ee7b4
Sóbester, András
096857b0-cad6-45ae-9ae6-e66b8cc5d81b
Challenor, Peter
a7e71e56-8391-442c-b140-6e4b90c33547
Tran, Giang T.
96da2b45-b395-4a27-b328-423f4d31becd
Oliver, Kevin I.C.
588b11c6-4d0c-4c59-94e2-255688474987
Holden, Philip B.
007e7f65-7cba-4117-bea8-bcd2caa38459
Edwards, Neil R.
9b7ab7c6-6229-4522-9780-1c24470ee7b4
Sóbester, András
096857b0-cad6-45ae-9ae6-e66b8cc5d81b
Challenor, Peter
a7e71e56-8391-442c-b140-6e4b90c33547

Tran, Giang T., Oliver, Kevin I.C., Holden, Philip B., Edwards, Neil R., Sóbester, András and Challenor, Peter (2018) Multi-level emulation of complex climate model responses to boundary forcing data. Climate Dynamics, 1-27. (doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4205-4).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Climate model components involve both high-dimensional input and output fields. It is desirable to efficiently generate spatio-temporal outputs of these models for applications in integrated assessment modelling or to assess the statistical relationship between such sets of inputs and outputs, for example, uncertainty analysis. However, the need for efficiency often compromises the fidelity of output through the use of low complexity models. Here, we develop a technique which combines statistical emulation with a dimensionality reduction technique to emulate a wide range of outputs from an atmospheric general circulation model, PLASIM, as functions of the boundary forcing prescribed by the ocean component of a lower complexity climate model, GENIE-1. Although accurate and detailed spatial information on atmospheric variables such as precipitation and wind speed is well beyond the capability of GENIE-1’s energy-moisture balance model of the atmosphere, this study demonstrates that the output of this model is useful in predicting PLASIM’s spatio-temporal fields through multi-level emulation. Meaningful information from the fast model, GENIE-1 was extracted by utilising the correlation between variables of the same type in the two models and between variables of different types in PLASIM. We present here the construction and validation of several PLASIM variable emulators and discuss their potential use in developing a hybrid model with statistical components.

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More information

Accepted/In Press date: 6 April 2018
e-pub ahead of print date: 16 April 2018
Keywords: Intermediate complexity model, Model hierarchy, Multi-level emulators, Probabilistic prediction, Spatio-temporal data

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 422964
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/422964
ISSN: 0930-7575
PURE UUID: 51657afe-089b-46d6-a5c0-abbcd6f34222
ORCID for András Sóbester: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-8997-4375

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 08 Aug 2018 16:31
Last modified: 07 Oct 2020 01:47

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Contributors

Author: Giang T. Tran
Author: Philip B. Holden
Author: Neil R. Edwards
Author: Peter Challenor

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