Sub-national future scenario planning: assessing trajectories of water and sanitation access in urban Kenya

Abstract

This study pilots a participatory methodology for sub-national spatial planning of urban and peri-urban water and sanitation services. Three groups of key informants were presented with evidence on national historic and future service provision trajectories and asked to map water and sanitation access in the city of Kisumu, Kenya by 2030, assuming current trends continue. Comparison of the groups’ outputs suggests greater certainty among participants over service access in Kisumu’s urban core compared to peri-urban areas. We discuss extensions to this preliminary methodology, including the potential benefits of its application to Kenya’s rapidly expanding small towns as suggested by participants.

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ORCID for James Wright: orcid.org/0000-0002-8842-2181

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