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Benefits Of climate change mitigation for reducing the impacts of sea-level rise in G-20 countries

Benefits Of climate change mitigation for reducing the impacts of sea-level rise in G-20 countries
Benefits Of climate change mitigation for reducing the impacts of sea-level rise in G-20 countries
This paper assesses the potential benefits of climate change mitigation in reducing the impacts of sea-level rise over the 21st century in G-20 countries (excluding the European Union as a whole), using the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment model. Impacts of the expected number of people flooded annually and wetland losses were assessed. To assess the benefits of mitigation, it was assumed that defences were not upgraded during the study.

Globally, with a sea-level rise of 0.68m by the 2080s (with respect to 1980-1999), representing a potential future with limited climate change mitigation, and with the SRES A1 socio-economic scenario, 123 million additional people could be flooded annually and 39% of present global wetland stock could be lost. For a 0.19m rise in sea-level, associated with a substantial reduction in emissions, the number of people flooded could reduce to 13 million per year, with 21% of global wetland stock loss, unless new wetlands emerge.

Collectively, non-Annex 1 G-20 countries experience a disproportionate higher number of people flooded in their nations compared with the proportion of population flooded globally. The greatest wetland losses for G-20 countries are projected for Australia, Indonesia and the USA. Thus, G-20 nations with the highest emissions or gross domestic product, frequently do not experience the greatest impacts, despite some of these nations being potentially more able to pay for adaptation.
0749-0208
Brown, Sally
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Nicholls, Robert J.
4ce1e355-cc5d-4702-8124-820932c57076
Pardaens, Anne K.
93a849ae-52ab-4bb1-ad74-0c154f280f60
Lowe, Jason A.
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Tol, Richard S.J.
4d0b78ab-9cc1-43cf-a519-607f6aaf9206
Vafeidis, Athanasios T.
1822479b-7b92-432e-aab2-7c6f413d72e9
Hinkel, Jochen
757916c3-aa74-4fbf-b96d-ce86eeff03e3
Brown, Sally
dd3c5852-78cc-435a-9846-4f3f540f2840
Nicholls, Robert J.
4ce1e355-cc5d-4702-8124-820932c57076
Pardaens, Anne K.
93a849ae-52ab-4bb1-ad74-0c154f280f60
Lowe, Jason A.
6f434b48-eb86-42cd-9173-eeb081a41a25
Tol, Richard S.J.
4d0b78ab-9cc1-43cf-a519-607f6aaf9206
Vafeidis, Athanasios T.
1822479b-7b92-432e-aab2-7c6f413d72e9
Hinkel, Jochen
757916c3-aa74-4fbf-b96d-ce86eeff03e3

Brown, Sally, Nicholls, Robert J., Pardaens, Anne K., Lowe, Jason A., Tol, Richard S.J., Vafeidis, Athanasios T. and Hinkel, Jochen (2018) Benefits Of climate change mitigation for reducing the impacts of sea-level rise in G-20 countries. Journal of Coastal Research. (In Press)

Record type: Article

Abstract

This paper assesses the potential benefits of climate change mitigation in reducing the impacts of sea-level rise over the 21st century in G-20 countries (excluding the European Union as a whole), using the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment model. Impacts of the expected number of people flooded annually and wetland losses were assessed. To assess the benefits of mitigation, it was assumed that defences were not upgraded during the study.

Globally, with a sea-level rise of 0.68m by the 2080s (with respect to 1980-1999), representing a potential future with limited climate change mitigation, and with the SRES A1 socio-economic scenario, 123 million additional people could be flooded annually and 39% of present global wetland stock could be lost. For a 0.19m rise in sea-level, associated with a substantial reduction in emissions, the number of people flooded could reduce to 13 million per year, with 21% of global wetland stock loss, unless new wetlands emerge.

Collectively, non-Annex 1 G-20 countries experience a disproportionate higher number of people flooded in their nations compared with the proportion of population flooded globally. The greatest wetland losses for G-20 countries are projected for Australia, Indonesia and the USA. Thus, G-20 nations with the highest emissions or gross domestic product, frequently do not experience the greatest impacts, despite some of these nations being potentially more able to pay for adaptation.

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Accepted/In Press date: 13 September 2018

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 424132
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/424132
ISSN: 0749-0208
PURE UUID: 14053b11-439b-4da4-a521-7077120d329d
ORCID for Sally Brown: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-1185-1962
ORCID for Robert J. Nicholls: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-9715-1109

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Date deposited: 05 Oct 2018 11:30
Last modified: 14 Mar 2019 01:43

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Contributors

Author: Sally Brown ORCID iD
Author: Anne K. Pardaens
Author: Jason A. Lowe
Author: Richard S.J. Tol
Author: Athanasios T. Vafeidis
Author: Jochen Hinkel

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