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The framework for estimating coverage in the 2011 Census of England and Wales: combining dual-system estimation with ratio estimation

The framework for estimating coverage in the 2011 Census of England and Wales: combining dual-system estimation with ratio estimation
The framework for estimating coverage in the 2011 Census of England and Wales: combining dual-system estimation with ratio estimation
Dual-system estimation is a well-established approach for estimating an unknown population size from two independent but imperfect counts of the population. In this paper we develop the estimation framework for using a coverage survey and population census as the two sources and combining with ratio estimation to produce a set of population estimates. Adjustments are developed to correct for a failure of the key assumptions of homogeneity and independence that under-pin dual-system estimation using an external count of the number of households. The issue of over-count within the census is also discussed and a bootstrap approach to variance estimation is proposed. A comprehensive set of simulation results are presented to support the decision to implement the framework to estimate the population following the 2011 Census of England and Wales; and the implementation to the estimation of census coverage in 2011 is discussed.
Census coverage, dual-system estimation, ratio estimation, dependence adjustment
1874-7655
Brown, James J.
13ba046e-a946-4a7f-8e95-36283361448e
Sexton, C.
96e9b94b-37af-4e93-97a4-6576ba5550fd
Abbott, Owen
5089e6aa-9af8-4322-b3bd-897587443327
Smith, Paul A.
a2548525-4f99-4baf-a4d0-2b216cce059c
Brown, James J.
13ba046e-a946-4a7f-8e95-36283361448e
Sexton, C.
96e9b94b-37af-4e93-97a4-6576ba5550fd
Abbott, Owen
5089e6aa-9af8-4322-b3bd-897587443327
Smith, Paul A.
a2548525-4f99-4baf-a4d0-2b216cce059c

Brown, James J., Sexton, C., Abbott, Owen and Smith, Paul A. (2018) The framework for estimating coverage in the 2011 Census of England and Wales: combining dual-system estimation with ratio estimation. Statistical Journal of the International Association for Official Statistics. (In Press)

Record type: Article

Abstract

Dual-system estimation is a well-established approach for estimating an unknown population size from two independent but imperfect counts of the population. In this paper we develop the estimation framework for using a coverage survey and population census as the two sources and combining with ratio estimation to produce a set of population estimates. Adjustments are developed to correct for a failure of the key assumptions of homogeneity and independence that under-pin dual-system estimation using an external count of the number of households. The issue of over-count within the census is also discussed and a bootstrap approach to variance estimation is proposed. A comprehensive set of simulation results are presented to support the decision to implement the framework to estimate the population following the 2011 Census of England and Wales; and the implementation to the estimation of census coverage in 2011 is discussed.

Text
SJIOAS 2011 Coverage Framework paper final - Accepted Manuscript
Restricted to Repository staff only until 1 September 2019.
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More information

Accepted/In Press date: 29 August 2018
Keywords: Census coverage, dual-system estimation, ratio estimation, dependence adjustment

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 424439
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/424439
ISSN: 1874-7655
PURE UUID: fa4532cd-bde9-4de4-828b-27824190d93c
ORCID for Paul A. Smith: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-5337-2746

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 05 Oct 2018 11:37
Last modified: 14 Mar 2019 01:33

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