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Modelling future safe and just operating spaces in regional social-ecological systems

Modelling future safe and just operating spaces in regional social-ecological systems
Modelling future safe and just operating spaces in regional social-ecological systems
Shaping social-ecological systems towards sustainable, desirable and equitable futures is often hampered by complex human-natural feedbacks, emergence and nonlinearities. Consequently, the future of systems vulnerable to collapse is uncertain under plausible trajectories of environmental change, socioeconomic development and decision-making. We develop a modelling approach that incorporates driver interactions and feedbacks to operationalise future “safe and just operating spaces” for sustainable development. Monte Carlo simulations of fish catch from India’s Chilika lagoon are compared to conditions that are ecologically and socioeconomically desirable as per today’s norms. Akin to a satellite-navigation system, the model identifies pathways giving at least a 75% chance of achieving the desirable future, while simultaneously diverting the system away from undesirable pathways. Critically for regional governance, the driver limits and trade-offs associated with regulating the resource are realised. More widely, this approach represents a adaptable framework that explores the resilience of social-ecological interactions and feedbacks underpinning regional sustainable development.
0048-9697
2105-2117
Cooper, Gregory
37b901f5-a53f-4790-a674-206c6c21debe
Dearing, John
dff37300-b8a6-4406-ad84-89aa01de03d7
Cooper, Gregory
37b901f5-a53f-4790-a674-206c6c21debe
Dearing, John
dff37300-b8a6-4406-ad84-89aa01de03d7

Cooper, Gregory and Dearing, John (2019) Modelling future safe and just operating spaces in regional social-ecological systems. Science of the Total Environment, 651, 2105-2117. (doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.118).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Shaping social-ecological systems towards sustainable, desirable and equitable futures is often hampered by complex human-natural feedbacks, emergence and nonlinearities. Consequently, the future of systems vulnerable to collapse is uncertain under plausible trajectories of environmental change, socioeconomic development and decision-making. We develop a modelling approach that incorporates driver interactions and feedbacks to operationalise future “safe and just operating spaces” for sustainable development. Monte Carlo simulations of fish catch from India’s Chilika lagoon are compared to conditions that are ecologically and socioeconomically desirable as per today’s norms. Akin to a satellite-navigation system, the model identifies pathways giving at least a 75% chance of achieving the desirable future, while simultaneously diverting the system away from undesirable pathways. Critically for regional governance, the driver limits and trade-offs associated with regulating the resource are realised. More widely, this approach represents a adaptable framework that explores the resilience of social-ecological interactions and feedbacks underpinning regional sustainable development.

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More information

Accepted/In Press date: 9 October 2018
e-pub ahead of print date: 10 October 2018
Published date: 15 February 2019

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 425221
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/425221
ISSN: 0048-9697
PURE UUID: 0b6c1d17-158c-46f1-949f-6bf7492f6774
ORCID for John Dearing: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-1466-9640

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 11 Oct 2018 16:30
Last modified: 10 Dec 2019 05:11

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