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Behavioural modelling of career progression in the European Commission

Behavioural modelling of career progression in the European Commission
Behavioural modelling of career progression in the European Commission
Though manpower planning models have been part of OR for many years, and simulation has always been acknowledged as a potential approach, there are few reported applications of its use. In this case-based study we report on a micro-simulation model that exploits the structure of the European Commission’s appraisal and promotion rules, and includes regression-based sampling schemes which allow for non-Normal error terms to represent behavioural factors that led to the need for a new system. With a suitably parsimonious formulation the 20,000 person model runs very effectively, and the transparency associated with simulation proves an important factor in the successful use of the model as the basis for designing a promotion box system that was implemented across the Commission in 2009. The simulation modelling incorporates many Markov-type elements, and we reflect on important lessons learned from this combined use of micro-simulation and Markov-based approaches to manpower modelling.
Human resources, OR in manpower planning, Simulation, Linear regression
0377-2217
632-641
Onggo, Stephan
8e9a2ea5-140a-44c0-9c17-e9cf93662f80
Pidd, Mike
f9dbfd44-5f6a-4038-b4bd-179ebf48d803
Soopramanien, Didier
690aaaab-6d33-4f25-8e0f-a17c3bd4325c
Worthington, David
ab73db70-8d63-4991-b743-c0c2f8ca6c47
Onggo, Stephan
8e9a2ea5-140a-44c0-9c17-e9cf93662f80
Pidd, Mike
f9dbfd44-5f6a-4038-b4bd-179ebf48d803
Soopramanien, Didier
690aaaab-6d33-4f25-8e0f-a17c3bd4325c
Worthington, David
ab73db70-8d63-4991-b743-c0c2f8ca6c47

Onggo, Stephan, Pidd, Mike, Soopramanien, Didier and Worthington, David (2012) Behavioural modelling of career progression in the European Commission. European Journal of Operational Research, 222 (3), 632-641. (doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2012.05.027).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Though manpower planning models have been part of OR for many years, and simulation has always been acknowledged as a potential approach, there are few reported applications of its use. In this case-based study we report on a micro-simulation model that exploits the structure of the European Commission’s appraisal and promotion rules, and includes regression-based sampling schemes which allow for non-Normal error terms to represent behavioural factors that led to the need for a new system. With a suitably parsimonious formulation the 20,000 person model runs very effectively, and the transparency associated with simulation proves an important factor in the successful use of the model as the basis for designing a promotion box system that was implemented across the Commission in 2009. The simulation modelling incorporates many Markov-type elements, and we reflect on important lessons learned from this combined use of micro-simulation and Markov-based approaches to manpower modelling.

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More information

Accepted/In Press date: 12 May 2012
e-pub ahead of print date: 19 May 2012
Published date: November 2012
Keywords: Human resources, OR in manpower planning, Simulation, Linear regression

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 425231
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/425231
ISSN: 0377-2217
PURE UUID: b2bf9a55-415f-4b40-b817-370cc698a21c
ORCID for Stephan Onggo: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-5899-304X

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 11 Oct 2018 16:30
Last modified: 20 Jul 2019 00:21

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