Mediterranean UNESCO World Heritage at risk from coastal flooding and erosion due to sea-level rise
Mediterranean UNESCO World Heritage at risk from coastal flooding and erosion due to sea-level rise
UNESCO World Heritage sites (WHS) located in coastal areas are increasingly at risk from coastal hazards due to sea-level rise. In this study we assess Mediterranean cultural WHS at risk from coastal flooding and erosion under four sea-level rise scenarios until 2100. Based on the analysis of spatially explicit WHS data, we develop an index-based approach that allows for ranking WHS at risk from both coastal hazards. Here we show that of 49 cultural WHS located in low-lying coastal areas of the Mediterranean, 37 are at risk from a 100-year flood and 42 from coastal erosion, already today. Until 2100, flood risk may increase by 50 % and erosion risk by 13 % across the region, with considerably higher increases at individual WHS. Our results provide a first-order assessment of where adaptation is most urgently needed and can support policymakers in steering local-scale research to devise suitable adaptation strategies for each WHS.
1-11
Reimann, Lena
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Vafeidis, Athanasios T.
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Brown, Sally
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Hinkel, Jochen
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Tol, Richard S.J.
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Reimann, Lena
0eba3180-a98e-4357-b8b2-71b925aaf23b
Vafeidis, Athanasios T.
495c5e09-19a6-48c3-ab99-d76710a31584
Brown, Sally
dd3c5852-78cc-435a-9846-4f3f540f2840
Hinkel, Jochen
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Tol, Richard S.J.
9952d2ed-15c7-47a6-9b0a-1021926582bd
Reimann, Lena, Vafeidis, Athanasios T., Brown, Sally, Hinkel, Jochen and Tol, Richard S.J.
(2018)
Mediterranean UNESCO World Heritage at risk from coastal flooding and erosion due to sea-level rise.
Nature Communications, 9, , [4161].
(doi:10.1038/s41467-018-06645-9).
Abstract
UNESCO World Heritage sites (WHS) located in coastal areas are increasingly at risk from coastal hazards due to sea-level rise. In this study we assess Mediterranean cultural WHS at risk from coastal flooding and erosion under four sea-level rise scenarios until 2100. Based on the analysis of spatially explicit WHS data, we develop an index-based approach that allows for ranking WHS at risk from both coastal hazards. Here we show that of 49 cultural WHS located in low-lying coastal areas of the Mediterranean, 37 are at risk from a 100-year flood and 42 from coastal erosion, already today. Until 2100, flood risk may increase by 50 % and erosion risk by 13 % across the region, with considerably higher increases at individual WHS. Our results provide a first-order assessment of where adaptation is most urgently needed and can support policymakers in steering local-scale research to devise suitable adaptation strategies for each WHS.
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manuscript_ncomms_adjusted_reimann_et_al
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s41467-018-06645-9
- Version of Record
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Accepted/In Press date: 28 August 2018
e-pub ahead of print date: 16 October 2018
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 425424
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/425424
PURE UUID: c9098bd3-47bb-48d8-ba83-90df934af4c6
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Date deposited: 18 Oct 2018 16:30
Last modified: 16 Mar 2024 07:03
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Contributors
Author:
Lena Reimann
Author:
Athanasios T. Vafeidis
Author:
Jochen Hinkel
Author:
Richard S.J. Tol
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