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Projection of eye disease burden in Singapore

Projection of eye disease burden in Singapore
Projection of eye disease burden in Singapore

INTRODUCTION: Singapore's ageing population is likely to see an increase in chronic eye conditions in the future. This study aimed to estimate the burden of eye diseases among resident Singaporeans stratified for age and ethnicity by 2040.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: Prevalence data on myopia, epiretinal membrane (ERM), retinal vein occlusion (RVO), age macular degeneration (AMD), diabetic retinopathy (DR), cataract, glaucoma and refractive error (RE) by age cohorts and educational attainment from the Singapore Epidemiology of Eye Diseases (SEED) study were applied to population estimates from the Singapore population model.

RESULTS: All eye conditions are projected to increase by 2040. Myopia and RE will remain the most prevalent condition, at 2.393 million (2.32 to 2.41 million) cases, representing a 58% increase from 2015. It is followed by cataract and ERM, with 1.33 million (1.31 to 1.35 million), representing an 81% increase, and 0.54 million (0.53 to 0.549 million) cases representing a 97% increase, respectively. Eye conditions that will see the greatest increase from 2015 to 2040 in the Chinese are: DR (112%), glaucoma (100%) and ERM (91.4%). For Malays, DR (154%), ERM (136%), and cataract (122%) cases are expected to increase the most while for Indians, ERM (112%), AMD (101%), and cataract (87%) are estimated to increase the most in the same period.

CONCLUSION: Results indicate that the burden for all eye diseases is expected to increase significantly into the future, but at different rates. These projections can facilitate the planning efforts of both policymakers and healthcare providers in the development and provision of infrastructure and resources to adequately meet the eye care needs of the population. By stratifying for age and ethnicity, high risk groups may be identified and targeted interventions may be implemented.

0304-4602
13-28
Ansah, John P.
61497967-79d8-4e53-b97f-16d11e8ff701
Koh, Victoria
131effdb-61e4-47c6-a501-269e649896dc
de Korne, Dirk F.
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Bayer, Steffen
28979328-d6fa-4eb7-b6de-9ef97f8e8e97
Pan, Chong
08155058-2cea-4c00-87ff-4f0a23db55e5
Thiyagarajan, Jayabaskar
93d5d49f-0bc9-4dfe-9ad2-2e269f448f38
Matchar, David B.
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Lamoureux, Ecosse
f7b5c79f-69c1-4c67-a53f-21b03674ff64
Quek, Desmond
c54465b5-18d8-4db8-a597-6d68b58fb87e
Ansah, John P.
61497967-79d8-4e53-b97f-16d11e8ff701
Koh, Victoria
131effdb-61e4-47c6-a501-269e649896dc
de Korne, Dirk F.
9e6b9308-9827-4f35-9af3-fcf683e09e50
Bayer, Steffen
28979328-d6fa-4eb7-b6de-9ef97f8e8e97
Pan, Chong
08155058-2cea-4c00-87ff-4f0a23db55e5
Thiyagarajan, Jayabaskar
93d5d49f-0bc9-4dfe-9ad2-2e269f448f38
Matchar, David B.
d93302f6-c585-4c64-a58d-c6d63264f928
Lamoureux, Ecosse
f7b5c79f-69c1-4c67-a53f-21b03674ff64
Quek, Desmond
c54465b5-18d8-4db8-a597-6d68b58fb87e

Ansah, John P., Koh, Victoria, de Korne, Dirk F., Bayer, Steffen, Pan, Chong, Thiyagarajan, Jayabaskar, Matchar, David B., Lamoureux, Ecosse and Quek, Desmond (2018) Projection of eye disease burden in Singapore. Annals Academy of Medicine Singapore, 47 (1), 13-28.

Record type: Article

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: Singapore's ageing population is likely to see an increase in chronic eye conditions in the future. This study aimed to estimate the burden of eye diseases among resident Singaporeans stratified for age and ethnicity by 2040.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: Prevalence data on myopia, epiretinal membrane (ERM), retinal vein occlusion (RVO), age macular degeneration (AMD), diabetic retinopathy (DR), cataract, glaucoma and refractive error (RE) by age cohorts and educational attainment from the Singapore Epidemiology of Eye Diseases (SEED) study were applied to population estimates from the Singapore population model.

RESULTS: All eye conditions are projected to increase by 2040. Myopia and RE will remain the most prevalent condition, at 2.393 million (2.32 to 2.41 million) cases, representing a 58% increase from 2015. It is followed by cataract and ERM, with 1.33 million (1.31 to 1.35 million), representing an 81% increase, and 0.54 million (0.53 to 0.549 million) cases representing a 97% increase, respectively. Eye conditions that will see the greatest increase from 2015 to 2040 in the Chinese are: DR (112%), glaucoma (100%) and ERM (91.4%). For Malays, DR (154%), ERM (136%), and cataract (122%) cases are expected to increase the most while for Indians, ERM (112%), AMD (101%), and cataract (87%) are estimated to increase the most in the same period.

CONCLUSION: Results indicate that the burden for all eye diseases is expected to increase significantly into the future, but at different rates. These projections can facilitate the planning efforts of both policymakers and healthcare providers in the development and provision of infrastructure and resources to adequately meet the eye care needs of the population. By stratifying for age and ethnicity, high risk groups may be identified and targeted interventions may be implemented.

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Accepted/In Press date: 1 January 2018
Published date: 1 January 2018

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Local EPrints ID: 425744
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/425744
ISSN: 0304-4602
PURE UUID: a0ed5642-556b-44f7-b407-71ad555c4649

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Date deposited: 02 Nov 2018 17:30
Last modified: 13 Mar 2019 17:53

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Contributors

Author: John P. Ansah
Author: Victoria Koh
Author: Dirk F. de Korne
Author: Steffen Bayer
Author: Chong Pan
Author: Jayabaskar Thiyagarajan
Author: David B. Matchar
Author: Ecosse Lamoureux
Author: Desmond Quek

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