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A procedure for the quantitative assessment of water resources management under climate change and the design of adaptation measures

A procedure for the quantitative assessment of water resources management under climate change and the design of adaptation measures
A procedure for the quantitative assessment of water resources management under climate change and the design of adaptation measures

The pressure on water resources has tremendously increased in the last decades and water stress is expected to further augment in many part of the world due to multiple social, economic and climatic factors. Climate change (CC) will play a key role in determining water availability especially in those countries where other drivers like population growth or economic conditions are rather stable. A huge research effort is undergoing to better understand how CC may affect the hydrological cycle. In this paper, we propose and apply a procedure on the basin of lake Como, Italy, to assess the impact of CC on water-related activities. Traditionally, this is done combining model-based approaches (e.g. downscaling of GCM outputs coupled with hydrological models to obtain future discharge scenarios) and qualitative evaluations (e.g. visual inspection of simulated discharges). In the proposed procedure, quantitative assessment is extended from hydrological variables to the impact on human activities via simulation of the entire water system and evaluation of the impacts on flooding, agriculture, ecosystems, etc. through performance indicators. As this procedure allows for a quantitative, transparent evaluation of different management policies under CC scenarios, it also opens the way to a rigorous design of adaptation measures taking into considerations future discharge scenarios on the one hand and Stakeholders' needs on the other.

Climate change, Reservoir optimization, Water resources management
2166-2173
International Environmental Modelling and Software Society
Anghileri, D.
611ecf6c-55d5-4e63-b051-53e2324a7698
Pianosi, F.
45ac34b7-e403-4758-ab54-bcba088f0ab3
Soncini-Sessa, R.
8a6437d8-d9a6-4ff5-ad2d-74c86bdb8332
Weber, E.
989e8ee2-b080-4c36-972b-c6928a6f1516
Anghileri, D.
611ecf6c-55d5-4e63-b051-53e2324a7698
Pianosi, F.
45ac34b7-e403-4758-ab54-bcba088f0ab3
Soncini-Sessa, R.
8a6437d8-d9a6-4ff5-ad2d-74c86bdb8332
Weber, E.
989e8ee2-b080-4c36-972b-c6928a6f1516

Anghileri, D., Pianosi, F., Soncini-Sessa, R. and Weber, E. (2010) A procedure for the quantitative assessment of water resources management under climate change and the design of adaptation measures. In Modelling for Environment's Sake: Proceedings of the 5th Biennial Conference of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society, iEMSs 2010. vol. 3, International Environmental Modelling and Software Society. pp. 2166-2173 .

Record type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)

Abstract

The pressure on water resources has tremendously increased in the last decades and water stress is expected to further augment in many part of the world due to multiple social, economic and climatic factors. Climate change (CC) will play a key role in determining water availability especially in those countries where other drivers like population growth or economic conditions are rather stable. A huge research effort is undergoing to better understand how CC may affect the hydrological cycle. In this paper, we propose and apply a procedure on the basin of lake Como, Italy, to assess the impact of CC on water-related activities. Traditionally, this is done combining model-based approaches (e.g. downscaling of GCM outputs coupled with hydrological models to obtain future discharge scenarios) and qualitative evaluations (e.g. visual inspection of simulated discharges). In the proposed procedure, quantitative assessment is extended from hydrological variables to the impact on human activities via simulation of the entire water system and evaluation of the impacts on flooding, agriculture, ecosystems, etc. through performance indicators. As this procedure allows for a quantitative, transparent evaluation of different management policies under CC scenarios, it also opens the way to a rigorous design of adaptation measures taking into considerations future discharge scenarios on the one hand and Stakeholders' needs on the other.

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More information

Published date: 2010
Venue - Dates: 5th Biennial Conference of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society: Modelling for Environment's Sake, iEMSs 2010, Ottawa, ON, Canada, 2010-07-05 - 2010-07-08
Keywords: Climate change, Reservoir optimization, Water resources management

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 425837
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/425837
PURE UUID: ce1f79ca-8274-4a01-adcd-637fcb98ed13
ORCID for D. Anghileri: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-6220-8593

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 05 Nov 2018 17:30
Last modified: 14 Mar 2019 01:21

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Contributors

Author: D. Anghileri ORCID iD
Author: F. Pianosi
Author: R. Soncini-Sessa
Author: E. Weber

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