The University of Southampton
University of Southampton Institutional Repository

A framework for the quantitative assessment of climate change impacts on water-related activities at the basin scale

A framework for the quantitative assessment of climate change impacts on water-related activities at the basin scale
A framework for the quantitative assessment of climate change impacts on water-related activities at the basin scale

While quantitative assessment of the climate change impact on hydrology at the basin scale is quite addressed in the literature, extension of quantitative analysis to impact on the ecological, economic and social sphere is still limited, although well recognized as a key issue to support water resource planning and promote public participation. In this paper we propose a framework for assessing climate change impact on water-related activities at the basin scale. The specific features of our approach are that: (i) the impact quantification is based on a set of performance indicators defined together with the stakeholders, thus explicitly taking into account the water-users preferences; (ii) the management policies are obtained by optimal control techniques, linking stakeholder expectations and decision-making; (iii) the multi-objective nature of the management problem is fully preserved by simulating a set of Pareto-optimal management policies, which allows for evaluating not only variations in the indicator values but also tradeoffs among conflicting objectives. The framework is demonstrated by application to a real world case study, Lake Como basin (Italy). We show that the most conflicting water-related activities within the basin (i.e. hydropower production and agriculture) are likely to be negatively impacted by climate change. We discuss the robustness of the estimated impacts to the climate natural variability and the approximations in modeling the physical system and the socio-economic system, and perform an uncertainty analysis of several sources of uncertainty. We demonstrate that the contribution of natural climate uncertainty is rather remarkable and that, among different modelling uncertainty sources, the one from climate modeling is very significant.

1027-5606
2025-2038
Anghileri, D.
611ecf6c-55d5-4e63-b051-53e2324a7698
Pianosi, F.
45ac34b7-e403-4758-ab54-bcba088f0ab3
Soncini-Sessa, R.
8a6437d8-d9a6-4ff5-ad2d-74c86bdb8332
Anghileri, D.
611ecf6c-55d5-4e63-b051-53e2324a7698
Pianosi, F.
45ac34b7-e403-4758-ab54-bcba088f0ab3
Soncini-Sessa, R.
8a6437d8-d9a6-4ff5-ad2d-74c86bdb8332

Anghileri, D., Pianosi, F. and Soncini-Sessa, R. (2011) A framework for the quantitative assessment of climate change impacts on water-related activities at the basin scale. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15 (6), 2025-2038. (doi:10.5194/hess-15-2025-2011).

Record type: Article

Abstract

While quantitative assessment of the climate change impact on hydrology at the basin scale is quite addressed in the literature, extension of quantitative analysis to impact on the ecological, economic and social sphere is still limited, although well recognized as a key issue to support water resource planning and promote public participation. In this paper we propose a framework for assessing climate change impact on water-related activities at the basin scale. The specific features of our approach are that: (i) the impact quantification is based on a set of performance indicators defined together with the stakeholders, thus explicitly taking into account the water-users preferences; (ii) the management policies are obtained by optimal control techniques, linking stakeholder expectations and decision-making; (iii) the multi-objective nature of the management problem is fully preserved by simulating a set of Pareto-optimal management policies, which allows for evaluating not only variations in the indicator values but also tradeoffs among conflicting objectives. The framework is demonstrated by application to a real world case study, Lake Como basin (Italy). We show that the most conflicting water-related activities within the basin (i.e. hydropower production and agriculture) are likely to be negatively impacted by climate change. We discuss the robustness of the estimated impacts to the climate natural variability and the approximations in modeling the physical system and the socio-economic system, and perform an uncertainty analysis of several sources of uncertainty. We demonstrate that the contribution of natural climate uncertainty is rather remarkable and that, among different modelling uncertainty sources, the one from climate modeling is very significant.

Text
hess-15-2025-2011 - Version of Record
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.
Download (786kB)

More information

Accepted/In Press date: 14 June 2011
e-pub ahead of print date: 28 June 2011
Published date: 2011

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 425838
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/425838
ISSN: 1027-5606
PURE UUID: d3897461-963a-47dd-8539-54df4e29d3ef
ORCID for D. Anghileri: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-6220-8593

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 05 Nov 2018 17:30
Last modified: 14 Mar 2019 01:21

Export record

Altmetrics

Contributors

Author: D. Anghileri ORCID iD
Author: F. Pianosi
Author: R. Soncini-Sessa

University divisions

Download statistics

Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.

View more statistics

Atom RSS 1.0 RSS 2.0

Contact ePrints Soton: eprints@soton.ac.uk

ePrints Soton supports OAI 2.0 with a base URL of https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/cgi/oai2

This repository has been built using EPrints software, developed at the University of Southampton, but available to everyone to use.

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue without changing your settings, we will assume that you are happy to receive cookies on the University of Southampton website.

×