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Trend detection in seasonal data: From hydrology to water resources

Trend detection in seasonal data: From hydrology to water resources
Trend detection in seasonal data: From hydrology to water resources

In this paper we investigate the relationship between hydro-climatic trends and their impacts on water resources at the basin scale, focusing on a catchment on the Italian and Swiss Alps in the period 1974-2010. More generally, we address the topic of trend detection in environmental time series combining novel and traditional tools in order to simultaneously tackle the issue of seasonality and interannual variability, which usually characterize natural processes. The paper's contribution is twofold. First, we propose a novel tool to be applied in Exploratory Data Analysis, named MASH (Moving Average over Shifting Horizon). It allows to simultaneously investigate the seasonality in the data and filter out the effects of interannual variability, thus facilitating trend detection. We describe how to combine the MASH with statistical trend detection tests, like the Mann-Kendall test, the Seasonal Kendall test, and the Linear Regression test, and Sen's method, to quantify the trends occurring in different seasons. Second, we estimate the impacts of hydrological changes in terms of water resources and we discuss their relevance from the water resources management perspective. We define and simulate a set of indicators of performances, resilience, reliability, and vulnerability, so to assess the ability of the water resources systems to absorb changes in the hydrological patterns. The analysis reveals that, in the case study area, statistically significant trends in hydro-climatic records have been undergoing in the last decades, although they have had limited impacts on water resources.

Alpine catchments, Seasonality, Stationarity, Streamflow, Trend detection, Water resources
0022-1694
171-179
Anghileri, Daniela
611ecf6c-55d5-4e63-b051-53e2324a7698
Pianosi, Francesca
1783479d-a7d3-464a-a64a-689db8861a2b
Soncini-Sessa, Rodolfo
8a6437d8-d9a6-4ff5-ad2d-74c86bdb8332
Anghileri, Daniela
611ecf6c-55d5-4e63-b051-53e2324a7698
Pianosi, Francesca
1783479d-a7d3-464a-a64a-689db8861a2b
Soncini-Sessa, Rodolfo
8a6437d8-d9a6-4ff5-ad2d-74c86bdb8332

Anghileri, Daniela, Pianosi, Francesca and Soncini-Sessa, Rodolfo (2014) Trend detection in seasonal data: From hydrology to water resources. Journal of Hydrology, 511, 171-179. (doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.01.022).

Record type: Article

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the relationship between hydro-climatic trends and their impacts on water resources at the basin scale, focusing on a catchment on the Italian and Swiss Alps in the period 1974-2010. More generally, we address the topic of trend detection in environmental time series combining novel and traditional tools in order to simultaneously tackle the issue of seasonality and interannual variability, which usually characterize natural processes. The paper's contribution is twofold. First, we propose a novel tool to be applied in Exploratory Data Analysis, named MASH (Moving Average over Shifting Horizon). It allows to simultaneously investigate the seasonality in the data and filter out the effects of interannual variability, thus facilitating trend detection. We describe how to combine the MASH with statistical trend detection tests, like the Mann-Kendall test, the Seasonal Kendall test, and the Linear Regression test, and Sen's method, to quantify the trends occurring in different seasons. Second, we estimate the impacts of hydrological changes in terms of water resources and we discuss their relevance from the water resources management perspective. We define and simulate a set of indicators of performances, resilience, reliability, and vulnerability, so to assess the ability of the water resources systems to absorb changes in the hydrological patterns. The analysis reveals that, in the case study area, statistically significant trends in hydro-climatic records have been undergoing in the last decades, although they have had limited impacts on water resources.

Full text not available from this repository.

More information

Accepted/In Press date: 11 January 2014
e-pub ahead of print date: 20 January 2014
Published date: 16 April 2014
Keywords: Alpine catchments, Seasonality, Stationarity, Streamflow, Trend detection, Water resources

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 425840
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/425840
ISSN: 0022-1694
PURE UUID: 7ac93c2f-fd30-4ee6-87a4-71e5e72c8e4b
ORCID for Daniela Anghileri: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-6220-8593

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 05 Nov 2018 17:30
Last modified: 26 Nov 2019 01:22

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