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Large storage operations under climate change: Expanding uncertainties and evolving tradeoffs

Large storage operations under climate change: Expanding uncertainties and evolving tradeoffs
Large storage operations under climate change: Expanding uncertainties and evolving tradeoffs

In a changing climate and society, large storage systems can play a key role for securing water, energy, and food, and rebalancing their cross-dependencies. In this letter, we study the role of large storage operations as flexible means of adaptation to climate change. In particular, we explore the impacts of different climate projections for different future time horizons on the multi-purpose operations of the existing system of large dams in the Red River basin (China-Laos-Vietnam). We identify the main vulnerabilities of current system operations, understand the risk of failure across sectors by exploring the evolution of the system tradeoffs, quantify how the uncertainty associated to climate scenarios is expanded by the storage operations, and assess the expected costs if no adaptation is implemented. Results show that, depending on the climate scenario and the time horizon considered, the existing operations are predicted to change on average from -7 to +5% in hydropower production, +35 to +520% in flood damages, and +15 to +160% in water supply deficit. These negative impacts can be partially mitigated by adapting the existing operations to future climate, reducing the loss of hydropower to 5%, potentially saving around 34.4 million US$ year-1 at the national scale. Since the Red River is paradigmatic of many river basins across south east Asia, where new large dams are under construction or are planned to support fast growing economies, our results can support policy makers in prioritizing responses and adaptation strategies to the changing climate.

climate change, water storage operation, water-energy-food security
1748-9318
Giuliani, Matteo
4a8eea5c-4735-48c3-b996-40afaceb6a44
Anghileri, Daniela
611ecf6c-55d5-4e63-b051-53e2324a7698
Castelletti, Andrea
be719c8b-5599-42a5-8404-259074a780d6
Vu, Phuong Nam
3de81371-b1ec-446b-aefb-5aaed595acef
Soncini-Sessa, Rodolfo
8a6437d8-d9a6-4ff5-ad2d-74c86bdb8332
Giuliani, Matteo
4a8eea5c-4735-48c3-b996-40afaceb6a44
Anghileri, Daniela
611ecf6c-55d5-4e63-b051-53e2324a7698
Castelletti, Andrea
be719c8b-5599-42a5-8404-259074a780d6
Vu, Phuong Nam
3de81371-b1ec-446b-aefb-5aaed595acef
Soncini-Sessa, Rodolfo
8a6437d8-d9a6-4ff5-ad2d-74c86bdb8332

Giuliani, Matteo, Anghileri, Daniela, Castelletti, Andrea, Vu, Phuong Nam and Soncini-Sessa, Rodolfo (2016) Large storage operations under climate change: Expanding uncertainties and evolving tradeoffs. Environmental Research Letters, 11 (3), [035009]. (doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/035009).

Record type: Article

Abstract

In a changing climate and society, large storage systems can play a key role for securing water, energy, and food, and rebalancing their cross-dependencies. In this letter, we study the role of large storage operations as flexible means of adaptation to climate change. In particular, we explore the impacts of different climate projections for different future time horizons on the multi-purpose operations of the existing system of large dams in the Red River basin (China-Laos-Vietnam). We identify the main vulnerabilities of current system operations, understand the risk of failure across sectors by exploring the evolution of the system tradeoffs, quantify how the uncertainty associated to climate scenarios is expanded by the storage operations, and assess the expected costs if no adaptation is implemented. Results show that, depending on the climate scenario and the time horizon considered, the existing operations are predicted to change on average from -7 to +5% in hydropower production, +35 to +520% in flood damages, and +15 to +160% in water supply deficit. These negative impacts can be partially mitigated by adapting the existing operations to future climate, reducing the loss of hydropower to 5%, potentially saving around 34.4 million US$ year-1 at the national scale. Since the Red River is paradigmatic of many river basins across south east Asia, where new large dams are under construction or are planned to support fast growing economies, our results can support policy makers in prioritizing responses and adaptation strategies to the changing climate.

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Giuliani_2016_Environ._Res._Lett._11_035009 - Version of Record
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More information

Accepted/In Press date: 20 January 2016
Published date: 2 March 2016
Keywords: climate change, water storage operation, water-energy-food security

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 425841
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/425841
ISSN: 1748-9318
PURE UUID: 77e20c91-870e-415d-8d9f-e67cecfb2b79
ORCID for Daniela Anghileri: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-6220-8593

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Date deposited: 05 Nov 2018 17:30
Last modified: 06 Jun 2024 02:04

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Contributors

Author: Matteo Giuliani
Author: Andrea Castelletti
Author: Phuong Nam Vu
Author: Rodolfo Soncini-Sessa

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