Population mobility reductions associated with travel restrictions during the Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone: use of mobile phone data
Population mobility reductions associated with travel restrictions during the Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone: use of mobile phone data
Background: Travel restrictions were implemented on an unprecedented scale in 2015 in Sierra Leone to contain and eliminate Ebola virus disease. However, the impact of epidemic travel restrictions on mobility itself remains difficult to measure with traditional methods. New 'big data' approaches using mobile phone data can provide, in near real-time, the type of information needed to guide and evaluate control measures.
Methods: We analysed anonymous mobile phone call detail records (CDRs) from a leading operator in Sierra Leone between 20 March and 1 July in 2015. We used an anomaly detection algorithm to assess changes in travel during a national 'stay at home' lockdown from 27 to 29 March. To measure the magnitude of these changes and to assess effect modification by region and historical Ebola burden, we performed a time series analysis and a crossover analysis.
Results: Routinely collected mobile phone data revealed a dramatic reduction in human mobility during a 3-day lockdown in Sierra Leone. The number of individuals relocating between chiefdoms decreased by 31% within 15 km, by 46% for 15-30 km and by 76% for distances greater than 30 km. This effect was highly heterogeneous in space, with higher impact in regions with higher Ebola incidence. Travel quickly returned to normal patterns after the restrictions were lifted.
Conclusions: The effects of travel restrictions on mobility can be large, targeted and measurable in near real-time. With appropriate anonymization protocols, mobile phone data should play a central role in guiding and monitoring interventions for epidemic containment.
1562-1570
Peak, Corey M.
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Wesolowski, Amy
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Zu Erbach-Schoenberg, Elisabeth
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Tatem, Andrew J.
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Wetter, Erik
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Lu, Xin
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Power, Daniel
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Weidman-Grunewald, Elaine
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Ramos, Sergio
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Moritz, Simon
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Buckee, Caroline O.
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Bengtsson, Linus
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1 October 2018
Peak, Corey M.
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Wesolowski, Amy
343b0df8-5a2f-46e2-9f1c-001d4adf7fb1
Zu Erbach-Schoenberg, Elisabeth
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Tatem, Andrew J.
6c6de104-a5f9-46e0-bb93-a1a7c980513e
Wetter, Erik
dd9554f1-7107-4d5b-b19f-7198af551091
Lu, Xin
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Power, Daniel
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Weidman-Grunewald, Elaine
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Ramos, Sergio
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Moritz, Simon
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Buckee, Caroline O.
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Bengtsson, Linus
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Peak, Corey M., Wesolowski, Amy, Zu Erbach-Schoenberg, Elisabeth, Tatem, Andrew J., Wetter, Erik, Lu, Xin, Power, Daniel, Weidman-Grunewald, Elaine, Ramos, Sergio, Moritz, Simon, Buckee, Caroline O. and Bengtsson, Linus
(2018)
Population mobility reductions associated with travel restrictions during the Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone: use of mobile phone data.
International Journal of Epidemiology, 47 (5), .
(doi:10.1093/ije/dyy095).
Abstract
Background: Travel restrictions were implemented on an unprecedented scale in 2015 in Sierra Leone to contain and eliminate Ebola virus disease. However, the impact of epidemic travel restrictions on mobility itself remains difficult to measure with traditional methods. New 'big data' approaches using mobile phone data can provide, in near real-time, the type of information needed to guide and evaluate control measures.
Methods: We analysed anonymous mobile phone call detail records (CDRs) from a leading operator in Sierra Leone between 20 March and 1 July in 2015. We used an anomaly detection algorithm to assess changes in travel during a national 'stay at home' lockdown from 27 to 29 March. To measure the magnitude of these changes and to assess effect modification by region and historical Ebola burden, we performed a time series analysis and a crossover analysis.
Results: Routinely collected mobile phone data revealed a dramatic reduction in human mobility during a 3-day lockdown in Sierra Leone. The number of individuals relocating between chiefdoms decreased by 31% within 15 km, by 46% for 15-30 km and by 76% for distances greater than 30 km. This effect was highly heterogeneous in space, with higher impact in regions with higher Ebola incidence. Travel quickly returned to normal patterns after the restrictions were lifted.
Conclusions: The effects of travel restrictions on mobility can be large, targeted and measurable in near real-time. With appropriate anonymization protocols, mobile phone data should play a central role in guiding and monitoring interventions for epidemic containment.
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dyy095
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Accepted/In Press date: 10 May 2018
e-pub ahead of print date: 26 June 2018
Published date: 1 October 2018
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 426077
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/426077
ISSN: 0300-5771
PURE UUID: f8983029-8306-44d9-b031-2aed43971c03
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Date deposited: 13 Nov 2018 17:30
Last modified: 16 Mar 2024 04:11
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Contributors
Author:
Corey M. Peak
Author:
Amy Wesolowski
Author:
Elisabeth Zu Erbach-Schoenberg
Author:
Erik Wetter
Author:
Xin Lu
Author:
Daniel Power
Author:
Elaine Weidman-Grunewald
Author:
Sergio Ramos
Author:
Simon Moritz
Author:
Caroline O. Buckee
Author:
Linus Bengtsson
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