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Seasonal and interannual risks of dengue introduction from South-East Asia into China, 2005-2015

Seasonal and interannual risks of dengue introduction from South-East Asia into China, 2005-2015
Seasonal and interannual risks of dengue introduction from South-East Asia into China, 2005-2015

Due to worldwide increased human mobility, air-transportation data and mathematical models have been widely used to measure risks of global dispersal of pathogens. However, the seasonal and interannual risks of pathogens importation and onward transmission from endemic countries have rarely been quantified and validated. We constructed a modelling framework, integrating air travel, epidemiological, demographical, entomological and meteorological data, to measure the seasonal probability of dengue introduction from endemic countries. This framework has been applied retrospectively to elucidate spatiotemporal patterns and increasing seasonal risk of dengue importation from South-East Asia into China via air travel in multiple populations, Chinese travelers and local residents, over a decade of 2005-15. We found that the volume of airline travelers from South-East Asia into China has quadrupled from 2005 to 2015 with Chinese travelers increased rapidly. Following the growth of air traffic, the probability of dengue importation from South-East Asia into China has increased dramatically from 2005 to 2015. This study also revealed seasonal asymmetries of transmission routes: Sri Lanka and Maldives have emerged as origins; neglected cities at central and coastal China have been increasingly vulnerable to dengue importation and onward transmission. Compared to the monthly occurrence of dengue reported in China, our model performed robustly for importation and onward transmission risk estimates. The approach and evidence could facilitate to understand and mitigate the changing seasonal threat of arbovirus from endemic regions.

Journal Article
1935-2727
1-16
Lai, Shengjie
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Johansson, Michael A
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Yin, Wenwu
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Wardrop, Nicola A
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van Panhuis, Willem G
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Wesolowski, Amy
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Kraemer, Moritz U G
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Bogoch, Isaac I
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Kain, Dylain
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Findlater, Aidan
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Choisy, Marc
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Huang, Zhuojie
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Mu, Di
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Li, Yu
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He, Yangni
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Chen, Qiulan
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Yang, Juan
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Khan, Kamran
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Tatem, Andrew J
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Yu, Hongjie
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Lai, Shengjie
b57a5fe8-cfb6-4fa7-b414-a98bb891b001
Johansson, Michael A
af82d041-4860-4875-95a8-5c1fea7278f9
Yin, Wenwu
08baf5f0-df1b-4e67-b251-427ba3bce1b4
Wardrop, Nicola A
8f3a8171-0727-4375-bc68-10e7d616e176
van Panhuis, Willem G
78d1517c-d2dc-48a8-953c-7ff8957b9f48
Wesolowski, Amy
343b0df8-5a2f-46e2-9f1c-001d4adf7fb1
Kraemer, Moritz U G
5d2b1994-4d71-4eb8-93dd-d948ba164fa2
Bogoch, Isaac I
2f25f533-9b71-483b-8100-17647ba0926b
Kain, Dylain
2ed58b79-fdd6-4f5b-8261-a150a8972fbb
Findlater, Aidan
261540f8-e02e-42c0-8360-d1addf42d3db
Choisy, Marc
5fffab7d-dc50-4e65-969d-78ecefee3993
Huang, Zhuojie
07e288b7-51b3-414a-82b7-28d83b114be6
Mu, Di
e58d130e-3c45-4641-9b80-a8f0bf7e8c5e
Li, Yu
66cc275f-bde9-4da4-aa4e-a1936189351e
He, Yangni
8374412b-1b25-4df8-9e78-15eeddc29cc8
Chen, Qiulan
ba6f6420-7bdd-4650-b34d-b5e084baff96
Yang, Juan
7d6bb0a9-7886-457c-97d6-be0b4dfd89cf
Khan, Kamran
f55abc91-5af0-4175-a845-90e88ab2e45a
Tatem, Andrew J
6c6de104-a5f9-46e0-bb93-a1a7c980513e
Yu, Hongjie
f6a43c0c-0da8-4124-bd15-cd832d6fee7c

Lai, Shengjie, Johansson, Michael A, Yin, Wenwu, Wardrop, Nicola A, van Panhuis, Willem G, Wesolowski, Amy, Kraemer, Moritz U G, Bogoch, Isaac I, Kain, Dylain, Findlater, Aidan, Choisy, Marc, Huang, Zhuojie, Mu, Di, Li, Yu, He, Yangni, Chen, Qiulan, Yang, Juan, Khan, Kamran, Tatem, Andrew J and Yu, Hongjie (2018) Seasonal and interannual risks of dengue introduction from South-East Asia into China, 2005-2015. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 12 (11), 1-16. (doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0006743).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Due to worldwide increased human mobility, air-transportation data and mathematical models have been widely used to measure risks of global dispersal of pathogens. However, the seasonal and interannual risks of pathogens importation and onward transmission from endemic countries have rarely been quantified and validated. We constructed a modelling framework, integrating air travel, epidemiological, demographical, entomological and meteorological data, to measure the seasonal probability of dengue introduction from endemic countries. This framework has been applied retrospectively to elucidate spatiotemporal patterns and increasing seasonal risk of dengue importation from South-East Asia into China via air travel in multiple populations, Chinese travelers and local residents, over a decade of 2005-15. We found that the volume of airline travelers from South-East Asia into China has quadrupled from 2005 to 2015 with Chinese travelers increased rapidly. Following the growth of air traffic, the probability of dengue importation from South-East Asia into China has increased dramatically from 2005 to 2015. This study also revealed seasonal asymmetries of transmission routes: Sri Lanka and Maldives have emerged as origins; neglected cities at central and coastal China have been increasingly vulnerable to dengue importation and onward transmission. Compared to the monthly occurrence of dengue reported in China, our model performed robustly for importation and onward transmission risk estimates. The approach and evidence could facilitate to understand and mitigate the changing seasonal threat of arbovirus from endemic regions.

Text
journal.pntd.0006743 - Version of Record
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.
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Submitted date: 9 August 2018
Accepted/In Press date: 21 October 2018
e-pub ahead of print date: 9 November 2018
Keywords: Journal Article

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 426078
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/426078
ISSN: 1935-2727
PURE UUID: 81a6058b-2974-4d13-be26-ec1b01680b37
ORCID for Shengjie Lai: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-9781-8148
ORCID for Andrew J Tatem: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-7270-941X

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 13 Nov 2018 17:30
Last modified: 15 Aug 2019 00:36

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Contributors

Author: Shengjie Lai ORCID iD
Author: Michael A Johansson
Author: Wenwu Yin
Author: Willem G van Panhuis
Author: Amy Wesolowski
Author: Moritz U G Kraemer
Author: Isaac I Bogoch
Author: Dylain Kain
Author: Aidan Findlater
Author: Marc Choisy
Author: Zhuojie Huang
Author: Di Mu
Author: Yu Li
Author: Yangni He
Author: Qiulan Chen
Author: Juan Yang
Author: Kamran Khan
Author: Andrew J Tatem ORCID iD
Author: Hongjie Yu

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