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Exploring the effect of human and animal population growth on vector-borne disease transmission with an agent-based model of Rhodesian human African trypanosomiasis in eastern province, Zambia

Exploring the effect of human and animal population growth on vector-borne disease transmission with an agent-based model of Rhodesian human African trypanosomiasis in eastern province, Zambia
Exploring the effect of human and animal population growth on vector-borne disease transmission with an agent-based model of Rhodesian human African trypanosomiasis in eastern province, Zambia
This paper presents the development of an agent-based model (ABM) to investigate Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense human African trypanosomiasis (rHAT) disease transmission. The ABM model, fitted at a fine spatial scale, was used to explore the impact of a growing host population on the spread of disease along a 75 km transect in the Luangwa Valley, Zambia. The model was used to gain a greater understanding of how increases in human and domestic animal population could impact the contact network between vector and host, the subsequent transmission patterns, and disease incidence outcomes in the region. Modelled incidence rates showed increases in rHAT transmission in both humans and cattle. The primary demographic attribution of infection switched dramatically from young children of both sexes attending school, to adult women performing activities with shorter but more frequent trips, such as water and firewood collection, with men more protected due to the presence of cattle in their routines. The interpretation of model output provides a plausible insight into both population development and disease transmission in the near future in the region and such techniques could aid well-targeted mitigation strategies in the future.
1935-2727
1-26
Alderton, Simon
ec893713-8c3f-465e-8a22-c719744d9f8c
Macleod, Ewan T.
339781ee-33f7-4dd1-8f28-0854491cb5ef
Anderson, Neil E.
78b9625e-5065-4e07-bfd0-0625e0174ca4
Machila, Noreen
de89dfd5-8994-4d40-9338-26dac8a8846c
Simuunza, Martin
07638302-eb50-428d-b418-83bcfae9a0c4
Welburn, Susan C.
e207a726-37ce-480e-b585-0f73b132ea91
Atkinson, Peter M.
96e96579-56fe-424d-a21c-17b6eed13b0b
Basáñez, María-gloria
8b554934-7948-4222-ba9e-526523e3acc3
Alderton, Simon
ec893713-8c3f-465e-8a22-c719744d9f8c
Macleod, Ewan T.
339781ee-33f7-4dd1-8f28-0854491cb5ef
Anderson, Neil E.
78b9625e-5065-4e07-bfd0-0625e0174ca4
Machila, Noreen
de89dfd5-8994-4d40-9338-26dac8a8846c
Simuunza, Martin
07638302-eb50-428d-b418-83bcfae9a0c4
Welburn, Susan C.
e207a726-37ce-480e-b585-0f73b132ea91
Atkinson, Peter M.
96e96579-56fe-424d-a21c-17b6eed13b0b
Basáñez, María-gloria
8b554934-7948-4222-ba9e-526523e3acc3

Alderton, Simon, Macleod, Ewan T., Anderson, Neil E., Machila, Noreen, Simuunza, Martin, Welburn, Susan C. and Atkinson, Peter M. , Basáñez, María-gloria (ed.) (2018) Exploring the effect of human and animal population growth on vector-borne disease transmission with an agent-based model of Rhodesian human African trypanosomiasis in eastern province, Zambia. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 12 (11), 1-26, [e0006905]. (doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0006905).

Record type: Article

Abstract

This paper presents the development of an agent-based model (ABM) to investigate Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense human African trypanosomiasis (rHAT) disease transmission. The ABM model, fitted at a fine spatial scale, was used to explore the impact of a growing host population on the spread of disease along a 75 km transect in the Luangwa Valley, Zambia. The model was used to gain a greater understanding of how increases in human and domestic animal population could impact the contact network between vector and host, the subsequent transmission patterns, and disease incidence outcomes in the region. Modelled incidence rates showed increases in rHAT transmission in both humans and cattle. The primary demographic attribution of infection switched dramatically from young children of both sexes attending school, to adult women performing activities with shorter but more frequent trips, such as water and firewood collection, with men more protected due to the presence of cattle in their routines. The interpretation of model output provides a plausible insight into both population development and disease transmission in the near future in the region and such techniques could aid well-targeted mitigation strategies in the future.

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Accepted/In Press date: 5 October 2018
e-pub ahead of print date: 8 November 2018
Published date: 8 November 2018

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 426294
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/426294
ISSN: 1935-2727
PURE UUID: 9ee5117b-7db6-4cbb-8cd5-da03e74a5df7
ORCID for Peter M. Atkinson: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-5489-6880

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Date deposited: 22 Nov 2018 17:30
Last modified: 20 Jul 2019 01:20

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