Modelling risk trade-off
Modelling risk trade-off
This paper considers the trade-offs that may be made in the risk and uncertainty associated with various performance criteria of a project activity. Specifically, duration, cost and quality are the criteria considered, and the uncertainties in them are regarded as manifestations of the intrinsic risk of the activity. Three complementary approaches to conceptualizing and modelling risk trade-offs, as an aid to project planning, are presented in the context of a single activity. A cognitive mapping approach encourages articulation and exploration of ideas about risk trade-offs. A contingency-response analysis approach aids detailed risk contingency planning. A risk-level approach provides a picture of risk exposure options. This last approach, in particular, is developed in the context of projects consisting of sequences of activities.
445-460
Klein, J.H.
639e04f0-059a-4566-9361-a4edda0dba7d
1993
Klein, J.H.
639e04f0-059a-4566-9361-a4edda0dba7d
Klein, J.H.
(1993)
Modelling risk trade-off.
Journal of the Operational Research Society, 44 (5), .
Abstract
This paper considers the trade-offs that may be made in the risk and uncertainty associated with various performance criteria of a project activity. Specifically, duration, cost and quality are the criteria considered, and the uncertainties in them are regarded as manifestations of the intrinsic risk of the activity. Three complementary approaches to conceptualizing and modelling risk trade-offs, as an aid to project planning, are presented in the context of a single activity. A cognitive mapping approach encourages articulation and exploration of ideas about risk trade-offs. A contingency-response analysis approach aids detailed risk contingency planning. A risk-level approach provides a picture of risk exposure options. This last approach, in particular, is developed in the context of projects consisting of sequences of activities.
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Published date: 1993
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Theoretical Paper
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Local EPrints ID: 42667
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/42667
ISSN: 0160-5682
PURE UUID: b4e3ff90-c2cd-4436-946b-990316f3215a
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Date deposited: 14 Dec 2006
Last modified: 23 Jul 2022 01:32
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