The Polls in 2017
The Polls in 2017
Will Jennings examines the opinion polls in the 2017 election, showing how they tracked movements in voting intentions during the campaign, but also how most of them under-estimated the Labour vote on polling day, suggesting a comfortable Conservative victory when the election ended in producing no overall majority. He also notes YouGov’s successful innovation in using a multilevel regression post-stratification model to make detailed constituency projections of the result, which did predict a hung parliament. He further examines both the campaign trends and the performance of the polls into their historical perspective, finding that it is not true that the polls are getting “worse” at predicting election results, as well as discussing the impact of the pollsters’ turnout corrections on their accuracy in 2017.
209-220
Jennings, William
2ab3f11c-eb7f-44c6-9ef2-3180c1a954f7
2019
Jennings, William
2ab3f11c-eb7f-44c6-9ef2-3180c1a954f7
Jennings, William
(2019)
The Polls in 2017.
In,
Wring, Dominic, Mortimore, Roger and Atkinson, Simon
(eds.)
Political Communication in Britain: Campaigning, Media and Polling in the 2017 General Election.
Basingstoke, GB.
Palgrave Macmillan, .
Record type:
Book Section
Abstract
Will Jennings examines the opinion polls in the 2017 election, showing how they tracked movements in voting intentions during the campaign, but also how most of them under-estimated the Labour vote on polling day, suggesting a comfortable Conservative victory when the election ended in producing no overall majority. He also notes YouGov’s successful innovation in using a multilevel regression post-stratification model to make detailed constituency projections of the result, which did predict a hung parliament. He further examines both the campaign trends and the performance of the polls into their historical perspective, finding that it is not true that the polls are getting “worse” at predicting election results, as well as discussing the impact of the pollsters’ turnout corrections on their accuracy in 2017.
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Jennings - The Polls in 2017
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Accepted/In Press date: 9 September 2018
e-pub ahead of print date: 24 November 2018
Published date: 2019
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 426703
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/426703
PURE UUID: aca57ddc-2a44-4e59-b50b-ee5cdb7fc145
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Date deposited: 10 Dec 2018 17:31
Last modified: 12 Apr 2024 01:44
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Contributors
Editor:
Dominic Wring
Editor:
Roger Mortimore
Editor:
Simon Atkinson
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