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The Polls in 2017

The Polls in 2017
The Polls in 2017
Will Jennings examines the opinion polls in the 2017 election, showing how they tracked movements in voting intentions during the campaign, but also how most of them under-estimated the Labour vote on polling day, suggesting a comfortable Conservative victory when the election ended in producing no overall majority. He also notes YouGov’s successful innovation in using a multilevel regression post-stratification model to make detailed constituency projections of the result, which did predict a hung parliament. He further examines both the campaign trends and the performance of the polls into their historical perspective, finding that it is not true that the polls are getting “worse” at predicting election results, as well as discussing the impact of the pollsters’ turnout corrections on their accuracy in 2017.
209-220
Palgrave Macmillian
Jennings, William
2ab3f11c-eb7f-44c6-9ef2-3180c1a954f7
Wring, Dominic
Mortimore, Roger
Atkinson, Simon
Jennings, William
2ab3f11c-eb7f-44c6-9ef2-3180c1a954f7
Wring, Dominic
Mortimore, Roger
Atkinson, Simon

Jennings, William (2019) The Polls in 2017. In, Wring, Dominic, Mortimore, Roger and Atkinson, Simon (eds.) Political Communication in Britain: Campaigning, Media and Polling in the 2017 General Election. Basingstoke, GB. Palgrave Macmillian, pp. 209-220.

Record type: Book Section

Abstract

Will Jennings examines the opinion polls in the 2017 election, showing how they tracked movements in voting intentions during the campaign, but also how most of them under-estimated the Labour vote on polling day, suggesting a comfortable Conservative victory when the election ended in producing no overall majority. He also notes YouGov’s successful innovation in using a multilevel regression post-stratification model to make detailed constituency projections of the result, which did predict a hung parliament. He further examines both the campaign trends and the performance of the polls into their historical perspective, finding that it is not true that the polls are getting “worse” at predicting election results, as well as discussing the impact of the pollsters’ turnout corrections on their accuracy in 2017.

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Accepted/In Press date: 9 September 2018
e-pub ahead of print date: 24 November 2018
Published date: 2019

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 426703
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/426703
PURE UUID: aca57ddc-2a44-4e59-b50b-ee5cdb7fc145

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Date deposited: 10 Dec 2018 17:31
Last modified: 13 Mar 2019 17:46

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