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Performance within a recession: The converging trajectories of retail centres in the UK

Performance within a recession: The converging trajectories of retail centres in the UK
Performance within a recession: The converging trajectories of retail centres in the UK

Using retail-centre aggregated microeconomic data for over 65,000 retail and service units in the UK, we explore the differential influence of the 2007/8 economic recession on the performance of retail centres. For the first time in the context on town centre/high street analyses of performance, we employ growth and convergence models to examine whether centres with different vacancy rates in the pre-recession period converged in the recession period that followed. The results indicate that the recession had higher negative influence on those centres that experienced lower retail vacancy rates in the pre-recession period, leading to convergence in retail vacancy rates. Despite the negative effect of recession in the UK retail market, the results show that there were some retail centres which were resilient to the effects of recession. Finally, there is evidence that the location and the size of retail centres moderate the convergence path.

convergence, growth, recession, retail vacancy, UK town centres
347-365
Tselios, Vassilis
a1fc70a6-a193-4075-8e36-5b07b65ebd17
Lambiri, Dionysia
eac5d4bd-45d2-4034-bb28-60468076c76d
Dolega, Les
5f2f0e50-6b8e-45ac-a6dc-4d61f4f59550
Tselios, Vassilis
a1fc70a6-a193-4075-8e36-5b07b65ebd17
Lambiri, Dionysia
eac5d4bd-45d2-4034-bb28-60468076c76d
Dolega, Les
5f2f0e50-6b8e-45ac-a6dc-4d61f4f59550

Tselios, Vassilis, Lambiri, Dionysia and Dolega, Les (2018) Performance within a recession: The converging trajectories of retail centres in the UK. Regional Science Policy and Practice, 10 (4), 347-365. (doi:10.1111/rsp3.12144).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Using retail-centre aggregated microeconomic data for over 65,000 retail and service units in the UK, we explore the differential influence of the 2007/8 economic recession on the performance of retail centres. For the first time in the context on town centre/high street analyses of performance, we employ growth and convergence models to examine whether centres with different vacancy rates in the pre-recession period converged in the recession period that followed. The results indicate that the recession had higher negative influence on those centres that experienced lower retail vacancy rates in the pre-recession period, leading to convergence in retail vacancy rates. Despite the negative effect of recession in the UK retail market, the results show that there were some retail centres which were resilient to the effects of recession. Finally, there is evidence that the location and the size of retail centres moderate the convergence path.

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Accepted/In Press date: 11 July 2018
e-pub ahead of print date: 19 September 2018
Published date: November 2018
Keywords: convergence, growth, recession, retail vacancy, UK town centres

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 427093
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/427093
PURE UUID: 3ecf76a7-606f-44d0-ad24-268390ef0cdc

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 21 Dec 2018 16:31
Last modified: 09 Nov 2021 14:14

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Contributors

Author: Vassilis Tselios
Author: Les Dolega

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