传染病暴发探测时间模型和时空模型的应用效果比较

Li, Zhong Jie, Liao, Yi Lan, Lai, Sheng Jie, Zhang, Hong Long, Ye, Chu Chu, Zhao, Dan, Jin, Lian Mei, Ma, Jia Qi, Lan, Ya Jia, Wang, Jin Feng and Yang, Wei Zhong (2011) 传染病暴发探测时间模型和时空模型的应用效果比较. Zhonghua liu xing bing xue za zhi = Zhonghua liuxingbingxue zazhi, 32 (5), 436-441. (doi:10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2011.05.003).

Abstract

To analyze the pilot results of both temporal and temporal-spatial models in outbreaks detection in China Infectious Diseases Automated-alert and Response System (CIDARS) to further improve the system. The amount of signal, sensitivity, false alarm rate and time to detection regarding these two models of CIDARS, were analyzed from December 6, 2009 to December 5, 2010 in 221 pilot counties of 20 provinces. The sensitivity of these two models was equal (both 98.15%). However, when comparing to the temporal model, the temporal-spatial model had a 59.86% reduction on the signals (15 702) while the false alarm rate of the temporal-spatial model (0.73%) was lower than the temporal model (1.79%), and the time to detection of the temporal-spatial model (0 day) was also 1 day shorter than the temporal model. Comparing to the temporal model, the temporal-spatial model of CIDARS seemed to be better performed on outbreak detection.

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Contributors

Author: Sheng Jie Lai

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