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Ocean precursors to the extreme Atlantic 2017 hurricane season

Ocean precursors to the extreme Atlantic 2017 hurricane season
Ocean precursors to the extreme Atlantic 2017 hurricane season
Active Atlantic hurricane seasons are favoured by positive precursor sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the main development region (MDR, 10–20°N, 20–80°W). Here, we identify a different driving mechanism for these anomalies in 2017 (most costly season on record) compared to the recent active 2005 and 2010 seasons. In 2005 and 2010, a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is the primary driver of positive SSTA. However, in 2017, reduced wind-driven cold water upwelling and weaker surface net heat loss in the north-eastern MDR were the main drivers. Our results are the first to show that air-sea heat flux and wind stress related processes are important in generating precursor positive SSTAs and that these processes were active pre-determinants of the 2017 season severity. In contrast to other strong seasons, positive SSTA developed later in 2017 (between April and July rather than March) compounding the challenge of predicting Atlantic hurricane season severity.
Hallam, Samantha
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Marsh, Robert
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Josey, Simon A.
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Hyder, Pat
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Moat, Ben
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Hirschi, Joël J.-M.
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Hallam, Samantha
eb391169-69e0-4027-9a22-b7c991d6a13a
Marsh, Robert
702c2e7e-ac19-4019-abd9-a8614ab27717
Josey, Simon A.
2252ab7f-5cd2-49fd-a951-aece44553d93
Hyder, Pat
3ecf7b44-00f5-4b4d-b689-71aab9907d98
Moat, Ben
497dbb18-a98f-466b-b459-aa2c872ad2dc
Hirschi, Joël J.-M.
c8a45006-a6e3-4319-b5f5-648e8ef98906

Hallam, Samantha, Marsh, Robert, Josey, Simon A., Hyder, Pat, Moat, Ben and Hirschi, Joël J.-M. (2019) Ocean precursors to the extreme Atlantic 2017 hurricane season. Nature Communications, 10 (1). (doi:10.1038/s41467-019-08496-4).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Active Atlantic hurricane seasons are favoured by positive precursor sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the main development region (MDR, 10–20°N, 20–80°W). Here, we identify a different driving mechanism for these anomalies in 2017 (most costly season on record) compared to the recent active 2005 and 2010 seasons. In 2005 and 2010, a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is the primary driver of positive SSTA. However, in 2017, reduced wind-driven cold water upwelling and weaker surface net heat loss in the north-eastern MDR were the main drivers. Our results are the first to show that air-sea heat flux and wind stress related processes are important in generating precursor positive SSTAs and that these processes were active pre-determinants of the 2017 season severity. In contrast to other strong seasons, positive SSTA developed later in 2017 (between April and July rather than March) compounding the challenge of predicting Atlantic hurricane season severity.

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Accepted/In Press date: 8 January 2019
Published date: 22 February 2019

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 429279
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/429279
PURE UUID: a3f84a35-75ab-4a2d-ac0f-5dd5d1e37d63
ORCID for Samantha Hallam: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-3418-2554

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Date deposited: 25 Mar 2019 17:30
Last modified: 10 Dec 2019 01:30

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