Seasonal intensification and trends of rogue wave events on the US western seaboard

Abstract

Studies of changes in wave climate typically consider trends in sea state statistics, such as the significant wave height. However, the temporal variability of individual rogue waves, which pose a hazard to users of the sea and coastal environment has not been investigated. We use time series of continuous surface elevation over 124–270 months (spanning 1994–2016), from 15 wave buoys along the US western seaboard, to investigate regional trends in significant wave height and individual rogue waves. We find high spatial variability in trends in significant wave height and rogue waves across the region. Rogue wave occurrence displays a mostly decreasing trend, but the relative height – or severity – of the waves is increasing. We also identify seasonal intensification in rogue waves with increased rogue wave occurrence, of higher severity, in the winter than in the summer. Therefore, the common practice of stating a single occurrence likelihood for an ocean basin is not valid. In addition, the buoy data show that the magnitude and significance of trends in significant wave height increases towards higher percentiles, supporting previous findings.

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