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Past and future spread of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus

Past and future spread of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus
Past and future spread of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus
The global population at risk from mosquito-borne diseases—including dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya and Zika—is expanding in concert with changes in the distribution of two key vectors: Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. The distribution of these species is largely driven by both human movement and the presence of suitable climate. Using statistical mapping techniques, we show that human movement patterns explain the spread of both species in Europe and the United States following their introduction. We find that the spread of Ae. aegypti is characterized by long distance importations, while Ae. albopictus has expanded more along the fringes of its distribution. We describe these processes and predict the future distributions of both species in response to accelerating urbanization, connectivity and climate change. Global surveillance and control efforts that aim to mitigate the spread of chikungunya, dengue, yellow fever and Zika viruses must consider the so far unabated spread of these mosquitos. Our maps and predictions offer an opportunity to strategically target surveillance and control programmes and thereby augment efforts to reduce arbovirus burden in human populations globally.
2058-5276
Kraemer, Moritz U. G.
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Reiner, Robert C.
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Brady, Oliver J.
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Messina, Jane P.
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Gilbert, Marius
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Pigott, David M.
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Yi, Dingdong
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Johnson, Kimberly
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Earl, Lucas
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Marczak, Laurie B.
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Shirude, Shreya
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Davis Weaver, Nicole
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Bisanzio, Donal
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Perkins, T. Alex
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Lai, Shengjie
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Lu, Xin
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Jones, Peter
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Coelho, Giovanini E.
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Carvalho, Roberta G.
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Van Bortel, Wim
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Marsboom, Cedric
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Hendrickx, Guy
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Schaffner, Francis
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Moore, Chester G.
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Nax, Heinrich H.
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Bengtsson, Linus
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Wetter, Erik
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Tatem, Andrew J.
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Brownstein, John S.
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Smith, David L.
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Lambrechts, Louis
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Cauchemez, Simon
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Linard, Catherine
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Faria, Nuno R.
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Pybus, Oliver G.
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Scott, Thomas W.
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Liu, Qiyong
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Yu, Hongjie
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Wint, G. R. William
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Hay, Simon I.
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Golding, Nick
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Kraemer, Moritz U. G.
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Reiner, Robert C.
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Brady, Oliver J.
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Messina, Jane P.
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Gilbert, Marius
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Pigott, David M.
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Yi, Dingdong
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Johnson, Kimberly
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Earl, Lucas
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Marczak, Laurie B.
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Shirude, Shreya
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Davis Weaver, Nicole
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Bisanzio, Donal
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Perkins, T. Alex
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Lai, Shengjie
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Lu, Xin
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Jones, Peter
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Coelho, Giovanini E.
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Carvalho, Roberta G.
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Van Bortel, Wim
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Marsboom, Cedric
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Hendrickx, Guy
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Schaffner, Francis
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Moore, Chester G.
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Nax, Heinrich H.
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Bengtsson, Linus
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Wetter, Erik
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Tatem, Andrew J.
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Brownstein, John S.
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Smith, David L.
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Lambrechts, Louis
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Cauchemez, Simon
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Linard, Catherine
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Faria, Nuno R.
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Pybus, Oliver G.
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Scott, Thomas W.
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Liu, Qiyong
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Yu, Hongjie
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Wint, G. R. William
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Hay, Simon I.
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Golding, Nick
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Kraemer, Moritz U. G., Reiner, Robert C., Brady, Oliver J., Messina, Jane P., Gilbert, Marius, Pigott, David M., Yi, Dingdong, Johnson, Kimberly, Earl, Lucas, Marczak, Laurie B., Shirude, Shreya, Davis Weaver, Nicole, Bisanzio, Donal, Perkins, T. Alex, Lai, Shengjie, Lu, Xin, Jones, Peter, Coelho, Giovanini E., Carvalho, Roberta G., Van Bortel, Wim, Marsboom, Cedric, Hendrickx, Guy, Schaffner, Francis, Moore, Chester G., Nax, Heinrich H., Bengtsson, Linus, Wetter, Erik, Tatem, Andrew J., Brownstein, John S., Smith, David L., Lambrechts, Louis, Cauchemez, Simon, Linard, Catherine, Faria, Nuno R., Pybus, Oliver G., Scott, Thomas W., Liu, Qiyong, Yu, Hongjie, Wint, G. R. William, Hay, Simon I. and Golding, Nick (2019) Past and future spread of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Nature Microbiology. (doi:10.1038/s41564-019-0376-y).

Record type: Article

Abstract

The global population at risk from mosquito-borne diseases—including dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya and Zika—is expanding in concert with changes in the distribution of two key vectors: Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. The distribution of these species is largely driven by both human movement and the presence of suitable climate. Using statistical mapping techniques, we show that human movement patterns explain the spread of both species in Europe and the United States following their introduction. We find that the spread of Ae. aegypti is characterized by long distance importations, while Ae. albopictus has expanded more along the fringes of its distribution. We describe these processes and predict the future distributions of both species in response to accelerating urbanization, connectivity and climate change. Global surveillance and control efforts that aim to mitigate the spread of chikungunya, dengue, yellow fever and Zika viruses must consider the so far unabated spread of these mosquitos. Our maps and predictions offer an opportunity to strategically target surveillance and control programmes and thereby augment efforts to reduce arbovirus burden in human populations globally.

Text
Aedes_Clean_Mansucript (1) - Accepted Manuscript
Restricted to Repository staff only until 4 September 2019.
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Submitted date: 20 November 2018
Accepted/In Press date: 18 January 2019
e-pub ahead of print date: 4 March 2019
Published date: 4 March 2019

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 429483
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/429483
ISSN: 2058-5276
PURE UUID: d1fc8642-ee9a-45c1-95f3-ffaa1d01b239
ORCID for Shengjie Lai: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-9781-8148
ORCID for Andrew J. Tatem: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-7270-941X

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 27 Mar 2019 17:30
Last modified: 28 Mar 2019 01:31

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Contributors

Author: Moritz U. G. Kraemer
Author: Robert C. Reiner
Author: Oliver J. Brady
Author: Jane P. Messina
Author: Marius Gilbert
Author: David M. Pigott
Author: Dingdong Yi
Author: Kimberly Johnson
Author: Lucas Earl
Author: Laurie B. Marczak
Author: Shreya Shirude
Author: Nicole Davis Weaver
Author: Donal Bisanzio
Author: T. Alex Perkins
Author: Shengjie Lai ORCID iD
Author: Xin Lu
Author: Peter Jones
Author: Giovanini E. Coelho
Author: Roberta G. Carvalho
Author: Wim Van Bortel
Author: Cedric Marsboom
Author: Guy Hendrickx
Author: Francis Schaffner
Author: Chester G. Moore
Author: Heinrich H. Nax
Author: Linus Bengtsson
Author: Erik Wetter
Author: Andrew J. Tatem ORCID iD
Author: John S. Brownstein
Author: David L. Smith
Author: Louis Lambrechts
Author: Simon Cauchemez
Author: Catherine Linard
Author: Nuno R. Faria
Author: Oliver G. Pybus
Author: Thomas W. Scott
Author: Qiyong Liu
Author: Hongjie Yu
Author: G. R. William Wint
Author: Simon I. Hay
Author: Nick Golding

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