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Hierarchical model for forecasting the outcomes of binary referenda

Hierarchical model for forecasting the outcomes of binary referenda
Hierarchical model for forecasting the outcomes of binary referenda
A Bayesian hierarchical model is proposed to forecast outcomes of binary referenda based on opinion poll data acquired over a period of time. It is demonstrated how the model provides a consistent probabilistic predictions of the final outcomes over the preceding months, effectively smoothing the volatility exhibited by individual polls. The method is illustrated using opinion poll data published before the Scottish independence referendum in 2014, in which Scotland voted to remain a part of the United Kingdom, and subsequently validate it on the data related to the 2016 referendum on the continuing membership of the United Kingdom in the European Union.
0167-9473
Wiśniowski, Arkadiusz
343c44c6-7efe-4b2e-9bc7-4ebe0419dd56
Bijak, Jakub
e33bf9d3-fca6-405f-844c-4b2decf93c66
Forster, Jonathan
e3c534ad-fa69-42f5-b67b-11617bc84879
Smith, Peter W.F.
961a01a3-bf4c-43ca-9599-5be4fd5d3940
Wiśniowski, Arkadiusz
343c44c6-7efe-4b2e-9bc7-4ebe0419dd56
Bijak, Jakub
e33bf9d3-fca6-405f-844c-4b2decf93c66
Forster, Jonathan
e3c534ad-fa69-42f5-b67b-11617bc84879
Smith, Peter W.F.
961a01a3-bf4c-43ca-9599-5be4fd5d3940

Wiśniowski, Arkadiusz, Bijak, Jakub, Forster, Jonathan and Smith, Peter W.F. (2018) Hierarchical model for forecasting the outcomes of binary referenda. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis. (doi:10.1016/j.csda.2018.09.007).

Record type: Article

Abstract

A Bayesian hierarchical model is proposed to forecast outcomes of binary referenda based on opinion poll data acquired over a period of time. It is demonstrated how the model provides a consistent probabilistic predictions of the final outcomes over the preceding months, effectively smoothing the volatility exhibited by individual polls. The method is illustrated using opinion poll data published before the Scottish independence referendum in 2014, in which Scotland voted to remain a part of the United Kingdom, and subsequently validate it on the data related to the 2016 referendum on the continuing membership of the United Kingdom in the European Union.

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Accepted/In Press date: 17 September 2018
e-pub ahead of print date: 27 September 2018

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 431453
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/431453
ISSN: 0167-9473
PURE UUID: a07a2497-1676-4e3f-b2f6-eff7446d2ce0
ORCID for Jakub Bijak: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-2563-5040
ORCID for Jonathan Forster: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-7867-3411
ORCID for Peter W.F. Smith: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-4423-5410

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Date deposited: 04 Jun 2019 16:30
Last modified: 17 Sep 2019 04:01

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Contributors

Author: Arkadiusz Wiśniowski
Author: Jakub Bijak ORCID iD
Author: Jonathan Forster ORCID iD

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