Hierarchical model for forecasting the outcomes of binary referenda
Hierarchical model for forecasting the outcomes of binary referenda
A Bayesian hierarchical model is proposed to forecast outcomes of binary referenda based on opinion poll data acquired over a period of time. It is demonstrated how the model provides a consistent probabilistic predictions of the final outcomes over the preceding months, effectively smoothing the volatility exhibited by individual polls. The method is illustrated using opinion poll data published before the Scottish independence referendum in 2014, in which Scotland voted to remain a part of the United Kingdom, and subsequently validate it on the data related to the 2016 referendum on the continuing membership of the United Kingdom in the European Union.
90-103
Wiśniowski, Arkadiusz
343c44c6-7efe-4b2e-9bc7-4ebe0419dd56
Bijak, Jakub
e33bf9d3-fca6-405f-844c-4b2decf93c66
Forster, Jonathan
e3c534ad-fa69-42f5-b67b-11617bc84879
Smith, Peter W.F.
961a01a3-bf4c-43ca-9599-5be4fd5d3940
May 2019
Wiśniowski, Arkadiusz
343c44c6-7efe-4b2e-9bc7-4ebe0419dd56
Bijak, Jakub
e33bf9d3-fca6-405f-844c-4b2decf93c66
Forster, Jonathan
e3c534ad-fa69-42f5-b67b-11617bc84879
Smith, Peter W.F.
961a01a3-bf4c-43ca-9599-5be4fd5d3940
Wiśniowski, Arkadiusz, Bijak, Jakub, Forster, Jonathan and Smith, Peter W.F.
(2019)
Hierarchical model for forecasting the outcomes of binary referenda.
Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 133, .
(doi:10.1016/j.csda.2018.09.007).
Abstract
A Bayesian hierarchical model is proposed to forecast outcomes of binary referenda based on opinion poll data acquired over a period of time. It is demonstrated how the model provides a consistent probabilistic predictions of the final outcomes over the preceding months, effectively smoothing the volatility exhibited by individual polls. The method is illustrated using opinion poll data published before the Scottish independence referendum in 2014, in which Scotland voted to remain a part of the United Kingdom, and subsequently validate it on the data related to the 2016 referendum on the continuing membership of the United Kingdom in the European Union.
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CSDA-Referendum-paper
- Accepted Manuscript
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1-s2.0-S0167947318302354-main
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Accepted/In Press date: 17 September 2018
e-pub ahead of print date: 27 September 2018
Published date: May 2019
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 431453
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/431453
ISSN: 0167-9473
PURE UUID: a07a2497-1676-4e3f-b2f6-eff7446d2ce0
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Date deposited: 04 Jun 2019 16:30
Last modified: 16 Mar 2024 07:05
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Author:
Arkadiusz Wiśniowski
Author:
Jonathan Forster
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