Planning the next census for Israel
Planning the next census for Israel
Like in many countries, Israel has a fairly accurate population register at the national level, consisting of about 9 million persons (not including Israelis living abroad). However, the register is much less accurate for small geographical (statistical) areas, with an average area enumeration error of about 13%. The main reason for the inaccuracy at the area level is that people moving in or out of an area are often late in reporting their change of address, and in some cases, not reporting at all. In order to correct the errors at the area level in our next census, we investigate the use of the following three-step procedure: A- Draw a sample from an enhanced register to obtain initial direct sample estimates for the number of persons residing in each area on “census day”, B- Fit the Fay-Herriot model to the direct estimates in an attempt to improve their accuracy, C- Compute a final census estimate for each statistical area as a linear combination of the estimate obtained in Step B and the register figure. We also consider a procedure to deal with not missing at random (NMAR) nonresponse in Step A. The proposed procedures are illustrated using data from the 2008 Census in Israel.
Direct estimator, Fay-Herriot model, Missing Information Principle, NMAR nonresponse, Root MSE estimation
7-19
Pfeffermann, Danny
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Ben-Hur, Dano
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Blum, Olivia
383742be-6433-418d-8778-e5e04099b535
Pfeffermann, Danny
c7fe07a0-9715-42ce-b90b-1d4f2c2c6ffc
Ben-Hur, Dano
1802479e-86c6-4fd3-a055-347cec184409
Blum, Olivia
383742be-6433-418d-8778-e5e04099b535
Pfeffermann, Danny, Ben-Hur, Dano and Blum, Olivia
(2019)
Planning the next census for Israel.
Statistics in Transition, 20 (1), .
(doi:10.21307/stattrans-2019-001).
Abstract
Like in many countries, Israel has a fairly accurate population register at the national level, consisting of about 9 million persons (not including Israelis living abroad). However, the register is much less accurate for small geographical (statistical) areas, with an average area enumeration error of about 13%. The main reason for the inaccuracy at the area level is that people moving in or out of an area are often late in reporting their change of address, and in some cases, not reporting at all. In order to correct the errors at the area level in our next census, we investigate the use of the following three-step procedure: A- Draw a sample from an enhanced register to obtain initial direct sample estimates for the number of persons residing in each area on “census day”, B- Fit the Fay-Herriot model to the direct estimates in an attempt to improve their accuracy, C- Compute a final census estimate for each statistical area as a linear combination of the estimate obtained in Step B and the register figure. We also consider a procedure to deal with not missing at random (NMAR) nonresponse in Step A. The proposed procedures are illustrated using data from the 2008 Census in Israel.
Text
10.21307_stattrans-2019-001
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Accepted/In Press date: 9 April 2019
e-pub ahead of print date: 27 May 2019
Keywords:
Direct estimator, Fay-Herriot model, Missing Information Principle, NMAR nonresponse, Root MSE estimation
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 432449
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/432449
ISSN: 1234-7655
PURE UUID: 0f26b186-70e7-48fa-befe-4349c1035cb5
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Date deposited: 16 Jul 2019 16:30
Last modified: 16 Mar 2024 02:53
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Author:
Dano Ben-Hur
Author:
Olivia Blum
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