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Tracking progress towards malaria elimination in China: estimates of reproduction numbers and their spatiotemporal variation

Tracking progress towards malaria elimination in China: estimates of reproduction numbers and their spatiotemporal variation
Tracking progress towards malaria elimination in China: estimates of reproduction numbers and their spatiotemporal variation
China reported zero locally-acquired malaria cases in 2017 and 2018. Understanding the spatio-temporal pattern underlying this decline, especially the relationship between locally-acquired and imported cases, can inform efforts to maintain elimination and prevent re-emergence. This is particularly pertinent in Yunnan province, where the potential for local transmission is highest. Using a geo-located individual-level dataset of cases recorded in Yunnan province between 2011 and 2016, we jointly estimate the case reproduction number, Rc, and the number of unobserved sources of infection. We use these estimates within spatio-temporal geostatistical models to map how transmission varied over time and space, estimate the timeline to elimination and the risk of resurgence. Our estimates suggest that, maintaining current intervention efforts, Yunnan is unlikely to experience sustained local transmission up to 2020. However, even with a mean Rc of 0.005 projected for the year 2019, locally-acquired cases are possible due to high levels of importation.
Routledge, Isobel
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Lai, Shengjie
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Battle, Katherine E.
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Ghani, Azra C.
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Gomez-Rodriguez, Manuel
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Gustafson, Kyle B.
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Mishra, Swapnil
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Proctor, Joshua L.
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Tatem, Andrew
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Li, Zhongjie
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Bhatt, Samir
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Routledge, Isobel
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Lai, Shengjie
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Battle, Katherine E.
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Ghani, Azra C.
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Gomez-Rodriguez, Manuel
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Gustafson, Kyle B.
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Mishra, Swapnil
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Proctor, Joshua L.
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Tatem, Andrew
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Li, Zhongjie
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Bhatt, Samir
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Routledge, Isobel, Lai, Shengjie, Battle, Katherine E., Ghani, Azra C., Gomez-Rodriguez, Manuel, Gustafson, Kyle B., Mishra, Swapnil, Proctor, Joshua L., Tatem, Andrew, Li, Zhongjie and Bhatt, Samir (2019) Tracking progress towards malaria elimination in China: estimates of reproduction numbers and their spatiotemporal variation. bioRxiv. (doi:10.1101/628842).

Record type: Article

Abstract

China reported zero locally-acquired malaria cases in 2017 and 2018. Understanding the spatio-temporal pattern underlying this decline, especially the relationship between locally-acquired and imported cases, can inform efforts to maintain elimination and prevent re-emergence. This is particularly pertinent in Yunnan province, where the potential for local transmission is highest. Using a geo-located individual-level dataset of cases recorded in Yunnan province between 2011 and 2016, we jointly estimate the case reproduction number, Rc, and the number of unobserved sources of infection. We use these estimates within spatio-temporal geostatistical models to map how transmission varied over time and space, estimate the timeline to elimination and the risk of resurgence. Our estimates suggest that, maintaining current intervention efforts, Yunnan is unlikely to experience sustained local transmission up to 2020. However, even with a mean Rc of 0.005 projected for the year 2019, locally-acquired cases are possible due to high levels of importation.

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628842.full - Author's Original
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Published date: 10 May 2019

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 433014
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/433014
PURE UUID: 42f4efba-3d29-4f90-b9ca-ccfb7f6a8cde
ORCID for Shengjie Lai: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-9781-8148
ORCID for Andrew Tatem: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-7270-941X

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Date deposited: 06 Aug 2019 16:30
Last modified: 14 May 2020 00:43

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