The University of Southampton
University of Southampton Institutional Repository

Framework for high-end estimates of sea level rise for stakeholder applications

Framework for high-end estimates of sea level rise for stakeholder applications
Framework for high-end estimates of sea level rise for stakeholder applications

An approach to analyze high-end sea level rise is presented to provide a conceptual framework for high-end estimates as a function of time scale, thereby linking robust sea level science with stakeholder needs. Instead of developing and agreeing on a set of high-end sea level rise numbers or using an expert consultation, our effort is focused on the essential task of providing a generic conceptual framework for such discussions and demonstrating its feasibility to address this problem. In contrast, information about high-end sea level rise projections was derived previously either from a likely range emerging from the highest view of emissions in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment (currently the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario) or from independent ad hoc studies and expert solicitations. Ideally, users need high-end sea level information representing the upper tail of a single joint sea level frequency distribution, which considers all plausible yet unknown emission scenarios as well as involved physical mechanisms and natural variability of sea level, but this is not possible. In the absence of such information we propose a framework that would infer the required information from explicit conditional statements (lines of evidence) in combination with upper (plausible) physical bounds. This approach acknowledges the growing uncertainty in respective estimates with increasing time scale. It also allows consideration of the various levels of risk aversion of the diverse stakeholders who make coastal policy and adaptation decisions, while maintaining scientific rigor.

2328-4277
1-16
Stammer, D.
2ace512d-2e95-4ffe-9fcc-8af6c1b5fcf2
van de Wal, R. S.W.
541169da-bfec-4510-943c-bb114d9d7481
Nicholls, R. J.
4ce1e355-cc5d-4702-8124-820932c57076
Church, J. A.
808e97d4-860d-44c4-ab43-c71bd176d30b
Le Cozannet, G.
ea4b270c-e656-47e8-9016-5696f790e261
Lowe, J. A.
b98357fd-b878-4401-8570-6f9059898219
Horton, B. P.
8cc6f186-e141-4b26-af6f-e72b13eac062
White, K.
dfc8302e-1947-4c83-a67d-8dc3ef1b00a0
Behar, D.
9fae6b87-e558-4f7a-8ead-ddd82ff90c14
Hinkel, J.
ad8c8187-dcca-42f5-84e0-75d30a1e7875
Stammer, D.
2ace512d-2e95-4ffe-9fcc-8af6c1b5fcf2
van de Wal, R. S.W.
541169da-bfec-4510-943c-bb114d9d7481
Nicholls, R. J.
4ce1e355-cc5d-4702-8124-820932c57076
Church, J. A.
808e97d4-860d-44c4-ab43-c71bd176d30b
Le Cozannet, G.
ea4b270c-e656-47e8-9016-5696f790e261
Lowe, J. A.
b98357fd-b878-4401-8570-6f9059898219
Horton, B. P.
8cc6f186-e141-4b26-af6f-e72b13eac062
White, K.
dfc8302e-1947-4c83-a67d-8dc3ef1b00a0
Behar, D.
9fae6b87-e558-4f7a-8ead-ddd82ff90c14
Hinkel, J.
ad8c8187-dcca-42f5-84e0-75d30a1e7875

Stammer, D., van de Wal, R. S.W., Nicholls, R. J., Church, J. A., Le Cozannet, G., Lowe, J. A., Horton, B. P., White, K., Behar, D. and Hinkel, J. (2019) Framework for high-end estimates of sea level rise for stakeholder applications. Earth's Future, 1-16. (doi:10.1029/2019EF001163).

Record type: Article

Abstract

An approach to analyze high-end sea level rise is presented to provide a conceptual framework for high-end estimates as a function of time scale, thereby linking robust sea level science with stakeholder needs. Instead of developing and agreeing on a set of high-end sea level rise numbers or using an expert consultation, our effort is focused on the essential task of providing a generic conceptual framework for such discussions and demonstrating its feasibility to address this problem. In contrast, information about high-end sea level rise projections was derived previously either from a likely range emerging from the highest view of emissions in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment (currently the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario) or from independent ad hoc studies and expert solicitations. Ideally, users need high-end sea level information representing the upper tail of a single joint sea level frequency distribution, which considers all plausible yet unknown emission scenarios as well as involved physical mechanisms and natural variability of sea level, but this is not possible. In the absence of such information we propose a framework that would infer the required information from explicit conditional statements (lines of evidence) in combination with upper (plausible) physical bounds. This approach acknowledges the growing uncertainty in respective estimates with increasing time scale. It also allows consideration of the various levels of risk aversion of the diverse stakeholders who make coastal policy and adaptation decisions, while maintaining scientific rigor.

Text
Stammer_et_al-2019-Earth's_Future - Version of Record
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.
Download (702kB)

More information

Accepted/In Press date: 12 June 2019
e-pub ahead of print date: 28 June 2019

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 433523
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/433523
ISSN: 2328-4277
PURE UUID: 76e61984-f6c9-4709-9118-329417db32a1
ORCID for R. J. Nicholls: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-9715-1109

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 27 Aug 2019 16:30
Last modified: 06 Jun 2024 01:42

Export record

Altmetrics

Contributors

Author: D. Stammer
Author: R. S.W. van de Wal
Author: R. J. Nicholls ORCID iD
Author: J. A. Church
Author: G. Le Cozannet
Author: J. A. Lowe
Author: B. P. Horton
Author: K. White
Author: D. Behar
Author: J. Hinkel

Download statistics

Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.

View more statistics

Atom RSS 1.0 RSS 2.0

Contact ePrints Soton: eprints@soton.ac.uk

ePrints Soton supports OAI 2.0 with a base URL of http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/cgi/oai2

This repository has been built using EPrints software, developed at the University of Southampton, but available to everyone to use.

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue without changing your settings, we will assume that you are happy to receive cookies on the University of Southampton website.

×