Coastal flood risks in China through the 21st century – An application of DIVA
Coastal flood risks in China through the 21st century – An application of DIVA
China experiences frequent coastal flooding, with nearly US$ 77 billion of direct economic losses and over 7,000 fatalities reported from 1989 to 2014. Flood damages are likely to grow due to climate change induced sea-level rise and increasing exposure if no further adaptation measures are taken. This paper quantifies potential damage and adaptation costs of coastal flooding in China over the 21st Century, including the effects of sea-level rise. It develops and utilises a new, detailed coastal database of China developed within the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment (DIVA) model framework. The refined database provides a more realistic spatial representation of coasts, with more than 2700 coastal segments, covering 28,966 km of coastline. Over 50% of China's coast is artificial, representing defended coast and/or claimed land. Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs for China are assessed for different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) combinations representing climate change and socio-economic change and two adaptation strategies: no upgrade of currently existing defences and maintaining current protection levels. By 2100, 0.7–20.0 million people may be flooded/yr and US$ 67–3,308 billion damages/yr are projected without upgrade to defences. In contrast, maintaining the current protection level would reduce those numbers to 0.2–0.4 million people flooded/yr and US$ 22–60 billion/yr flood costs by 2100, with protection investment costs of US$ 8–17 billion/yr. In 2100, maintaining current protection levels, dikes costs are two orders of magnitude smaller than flood costs across all scenarios, even without accounting for indirect damages. This research improves on earlier national assessments of China by generating a wider range of projections, based on improved datasets. The information delivered in this study will help governments, policy-makers, insurance companies and local communities in China understand risks and design appropriate strategies to adapt to increasing coastal flood risk in an uncertain world.
China, Climate change impacts, Coastal flooding, Risk assessment, Sea level rise
1-35
Fang, Jiayi
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Lincke, Daniel
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Brown, Sally
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Nicholls, Robert
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Wolff, Claudia
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Merkens, Jan-Ludolf
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Hinkel, Jochen
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Shi, Peijun
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Liu, Min
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20 February 2020
Fang, Jiayi
0dca8814-808a-4ddb-a88e-52615624ba32
Lincke, Daniel
8b279c5b-dd6e-46f4-9c8d-adf83f6ea2cd
Brown, Sally
dd3c5852-78cc-435a-9846-4f3f540f2840
Nicholls, Robert
4ce1e355-cc5d-4702-8124-820932c57076
Wolff, Claudia
e1c98db0-156d-49db-9d03-710eb3c96ab6
Merkens, Jan-Ludolf
4a431698-ef82-4252-b0de-28aea9197469
Hinkel, Jochen
9c7e8026-955c-42cd-9179-6113efbf1339
Shi, Peijun
5dbb7657-71b4-4a71-a7af-e7930c7ec322
Liu, Min
59b33d2d-c9d4-4ffe-8b95-3a58efd1b066
Fang, Jiayi, Lincke, Daniel, Brown, Sally, Nicholls, Robert, Wolff, Claudia, Merkens, Jan-Ludolf, Hinkel, Jochen, Shi, Peijun and Liu, Min
(2020)
Coastal flood risks in China through the 21st century – An application of DIVA.
Science of the Total Environment, 704, , [135311].
(doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135311).
Abstract
China experiences frequent coastal flooding, with nearly US$ 77 billion of direct economic losses and over 7,000 fatalities reported from 1989 to 2014. Flood damages are likely to grow due to climate change induced sea-level rise and increasing exposure if no further adaptation measures are taken. This paper quantifies potential damage and adaptation costs of coastal flooding in China over the 21st Century, including the effects of sea-level rise. It develops and utilises a new, detailed coastal database of China developed within the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment (DIVA) model framework. The refined database provides a more realistic spatial representation of coasts, with more than 2700 coastal segments, covering 28,966 km of coastline. Over 50% of China's coast is artificial, representing defended coast and/or claimed land. Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs for China are assessed for different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) combinations representing climate change and socio-economic change and two adaptation strategies: no upgrade of currently existing defences and maintaining current protection levels. By 2100, 0.7–20.0 million people may be flooded/yr and US$ 67–3,308 billion damages/yr are projected without upgrade to defences. In contrast, maintaining the current protection level would reduce those numbers to 0.2–0.4 million people flooded/yr and US$ 22–60 billion/yr flood costs by 2100, with protection investment costs of US$ 8–17 billion/yr. In 2100, maintaining current protection levels, dikes costs are two orders of magnitude smaller than flood costs across all scenarios, even without accounting for indirect damages. This research improves on earlier national assessments of China by generating a wider range of projections, based on improved datasets. The information delivered in this study will help governments, policy-makers, insurance companies and local communities in China understand risks and design appropriate strategies to adapt to increasing coastal flood risk in an uncertain world.
Text
diva_chn_no1_manuscript_v14 revised clean version
- Accepted Manuscript
More information
Submitted date: 29 October 2019
Accepted/In Press date: 29 October 2019
e-pub ahead of print date: 20 November 2019
Published date: 20 February 2020
Additional Information:
Funding Information:
This work is funded by the National Key R&D Program of China ( 2017YFE0100700 ; 2016YFA0602404 ; 2017YFC1503001 ); Shanghai Sailing Program ( 19YF1413700 ); China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (No. 2019M651429 ); European Union’s Seventh Programme for Research, Technological Development and Demonstration under grant agreement No. 603396 (RISES-AM project); Special thanks to China Scholarship Council. Appendix A
Publisher Copyright:
© 2019 Elsevier B.V.
Keywords:
China, Climate change impacts, Coastal flooding, Risk assessment, Sea level rise
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 436008
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/436008
ISSN: 0048-9697
PURE UUID: 67915527-49e6-42db-be24-cb74de39c4a6
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Date deposited: 26 Nov 2019 17:30
Last modified: 17 Mar 2024 05:04
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Contributors
Author:
Daniel Lincke
Author:
Claudia Wolff
Author:
Jan-Ludolf Merkens
Author:
Jochen Hinkel
Author:
Peijun Shi
Author:
Min Liu
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