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Using models to shape measles control and elimination strategies in low- and middle-income countries: A review of recent applications

Using models to shape measles control and elimination strategies in low- and middle-income countries: A review of recent applications
Using models to shape measles control and elimination strategies in low- and middle-income countries: A review of recent applications
After many decades of vaccination, measles epidemiology varies greatly between and within countries. National immunization programs are therefore encouraged to conduct regular situation analyses and to leverage models to adapt interventions to local needs. Here, we review applications of models to develop locally tailored interventions to support control and elimination efforts. In general, statistical and semi-mechanistic transmission models can be used to synthesize information from vaccination coverage, measles incidence, demographic, and/or serological data, offering a means to estimate the spatial and age-specific distribution of measles susceptibility. These estimates complete the picture provided by vaccination coverage alone, by accounting for natural immunity. Dynamic transmission models can then be used to evaluate the relative impact of candidate interventions for measles control and elimination and the expected future epidemiology. In most countries, models predict substantial numbers of susceptible individuals outside the age range of routine vaccination, which affects outbreak risk and necessitates additional intervention to achieve elimination. More effective use of models to inform both vaccination program planning and evaluation requires the development of training to enhance broader understanding of models and where feasible, building capacity for modelling in-country, pipelines for rapid evaluation of model predictions using surveillance data, and clear protocols for incorporating model results into decision-making.
Measles, Measles vaccination, Rubella, Epidemiology, Elimination, Mathematical models
0264-410X
979-992
Cutts, F.T.
dbcf525c-2c9e-4d93-9dc8-9c9eb00a78cf
Dansereau, E.
766845f9-00e9-4f81-b17f-60121c891a7e
Ferrari, M.J.
dae39688-4fe9-4223-9d55-0dd8edf5b6f0
Hanson, M.
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McCarthy, K.A.
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Metcalf, C.J.E.
332e16be-fa12-46de-9ee5-3d5ec2ec98d6
Takahashi, S.
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Tatem, A.J.
6c6de104-a5f9-46e0-bb93-a1a7c980513e
Thakkar, N.
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Truelove, S.
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Utazi, E.
e69ca81e-fb23-4bc1-99a5-25c9e0f4d6f9
Winter, A.K.
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Cutts, F.T.
dbcf525c-2c9e-4d93-9dc8-9c9eb00a78cf
Dansereau, E.
766845f9-00e9-4f81-b17f-60121c891a7e
Ferrari, M.J.
dae39688-4fe9-4223-9d55-0dd8edf5b6f0
Hanson, M.
020fffed-f2aa-49a7-a3ab-4eb505730d14
McCarthy, K.A.
1fa67e4b-fd44-4ccd-adbc-1f7af9572112
Metcalf, C.J.E.
332e16be-fa12-46de-9ee5-3d5ec2ec98d6
Takahashi, S.
884020be-da4f-43b9-afee-fae33f9501b6
Tatem, A.J.
6c6de104-a5f9-46e0-bb93-a1a7c980513e
Thakkar, N.
ed0d3bde-1438-40bc-aeff-0a3be59e4dd8
Truelove, S.
a289758f-77f0-4f7c-8279-ab802fb1d8e7
Utazi, E.
e69ca81e-fb23-4bc1-99a5-25c9e0f4d6f9
Winter, A.K.
24a902c8-2558-4154-b5b6-3d79604be601

Cutts, F.T., Dansereau, E., Ferrari, M.J., Hanson, M., McCarthy, K.A., Metcalf, C.J.E., Takahashi, S., Tatem, A.J., Thakkar, N., Truelove, S., Utazi, E. and Winter, A.K. (2020) Using models to shape measles control and elimination strategies in low- and middle-income countries: A review of recent applications. Vaccine, 38 (5), 979-992. (doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2019.11.020).

Record type: Article

Abstract

After many decades of vaccination, measles epidemiology varies greatly between and within countries. National immunization programs are therefore encouraged to conduct regular situation analyses and to leverage models to adapt interventions to local needs. Here, we review applications of models to develop locally tailored interventions to support control and elimination efforts. In general, statistical and semi-mechanistic transmission models can be used to synthesize information from vaccination coverage, measles incidence, demographic, and/or serological data, offering a means to estimate the spatial and age-specific distribution of measles susceptibility. These estimates complete the picture provided by vaccination coverage alone, by accounting for natural immunity. Dynamic transmission models can then be used to evaluate the relative impact of candidate interventions for measles control and elimination and the expected future epidemiology. In most countries, models predict substantial numbers of susceptible individuals outside the age range of routine vaccination, which affects outbreak risk and necessitates additional intervention to achieve elimination. More effective use of models to inform both vaccination program planning and evaluation requires the development of training to enhance broader understanding of models and where feasible, building capacity for modelling in-country, pipelines for rapid evaluation of model predictions using surveillance data, and clear protocols for incorporating model results into decision-making.

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More information

Submitted date: 10 August 2019
Accepted/In Press date: 8 November 2019
e-pub ahead of print date: 29 November 2019
Published date: 29 January 2020
Keywords: Measles, Measles vaccination, Rubella, Epidemiology, Elimination, Mathematical models

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 436376
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/436376
ISSN: 0264-410X
PURE UUID: 253ba5fc-98b8-4804-9840-c6f30257d9e2
ORCID for A.J. Tatem: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-7270-941X

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 09 Dec 2019 17:30
Last modified: 07 Oct 2020 02:01

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