Ruktanonchai, Corrine, Warren, Nieves, Jeremiah, Joseph, Ruktanonchai, Nick, Nilsen, Kristine, Steele, Jessica, Matthews, Zoe and Tatem, Andrew (2020) Estimating uncertainty in geospatial modelling at multiple spatial resolutions: the pattern of delivery via caesarean section in Tanzania. BMJ Global Health, 4 (e002092), 1-8, [e002092]. (doi:10.1136/bmjgh-2019-002092).
Abstract
Visualising maternal and newborn health (MNH) outcomes at fine spatial resolutions is crucial to ensuring the most vulnerable women and children are not left behind in improving health. Disaggregated data on life-saving MNH interventions remain difficult to obtain, however, necessitating the use of Bayesian geostatistical models to map outcomes at small geographical areas. While these methods have improved model parameter estimates and precision among spatially correlated health outcomes and allowed for the quantification of uncertainty, few studies have examined the trade-off between higher spatial resolution modelling and how associated uncertainty propagates. Here, we explored the trade-off
between model outcomes and associated uncertainty at increasing spatial resolutions by quantifying the posterior distribution of delivery via caesarean section (c-section) in Tanzania. Overall, in modelling delivery via c-section at multiple spatial resolutions, we demonstrated poverty to be negatively correlated across spatial resolutions, suggesting important disparities in obtaining life-saving obstetric surgery persist across sociodemographic factors. Lastly, we found that while uncertainty increased with higher spatial resolution input, model precision was best approximated at the highest spatial resolution, suggesting an important policy trade-off between identifying concealed spatial heterogeneities in health indicators.
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- Faculties (pre 2018 reorg) > Faculty of Engineering and the Environment (pre 2018 reorg) > Southampton Marine & Maritime Institute (pre 2018 reorg)
- Current Faculties > Faculty of Environmental and Life Sciences > School of Geography and Environmental Sciences
School of Geography and Environmental Sciences - Current Faculties > Faculty of Environmental and Life Sciences > School of Geography and Environmental Sciences > Population, Health and Wellbeing (PHeW)
School of Geography and Environmental Sciences > Population, Health and Wellbeing (PHeW) - Current Faculties > Faculty of Environmental and Life Sciences > School of Geography and Environmental Sciences > Population, Health and Wellbeing (PHeW) > World Pop
School of Geography and Environmental Sciences > Population, Health and Wellbeing (PHeW) > World Pop - Current Faculties > Faculty of Social Sciences > School of Economic Social and Political Science > Social Statistics and Demography
School of Economic Social and Political Science > Social Statistics and Demography - Current Faculties > Faculty of Environmental and Life Sciences > School of Geography and Environmental Sciences > Population, Health and Wellbeing (PHeW) > WorldPop
School of Geography and Environmental Sciences > Population, Health and Wellbeing (PHeW) > WorldPop
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