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Shale gas production decline trend over time in the Barnett Shale

Shale gas production decline trend over time in the Barnett Shale
Shale gas production decline trend over time in the Barnett Shale
Natural gas produced from shale formations in the United States over the past decade have altered the oil and gas industry remarkably. The Barnett shale was at the forefront of the shale gas revolution in the United States and was considered to be the highest producing natural gas field in the United States until 2012, yielding the top producer spot to the Marcellus shale. Due to the uncertainty regarding the accurate determination of Estimated Ultimate Recoverable (EUR) in shale gas reservoirs, this paper aims to assess EUR values for the Barnett shale using empirical decline curve methods like the Arp's hyperbolic, Modified Arp's hyperbolic and Doung's method. In addition, we investigated the economic viability of wells over time in the Barnett under various probabilities of success. Throughout this paper, reference is made to two key publications where a similar work was carried out for various shale plays in the United States, including the Barnett shale – though only the Arp's hyperbolic decline was employed. The dataset in this paper consisted of more horizontal wells from covering more counties within the Barnett shale compared to other similar studies. We conclude that either the Arp's hyperbolic or Doung's method can be used to forecast EUR in the Barnett shale as only marginal differences were observed. This is on the basis that production history exceeds 10 months (a maximum of 80 months production history was used). We also obtained reliable and conservative estimates of EUR compared to previous studies.
estimated ultimate recovery, Barnett shale, Arp's hyperbolic, Doung's method, modified hyperbolic
0920-4105
691-710
Kenomore, Michael
94a249af-8730-4253-99a2-1cbccbe8ed31
Hassan Sayed, Mohamed
ce323212-f178-4d72-85cf-23cd30605cd8
Malakooti, Reza
53062990-b9ba-4d4b-88e0-cc11bff00190
Dhakal, Hom
ed7c4499-110b-4203-b5e7-a2386a1c3214
Shah, Amjad
acbfbb5c-fe5d-4703-8f1b-2397f18e80d8
Kenomore, Michael
94a249af-8730-4253-99a2-1cbccbe8ed31
Hassan Sayed, Mohamed
ce323212-f178-4d72-85cf-23cd30605cd8
Malakooti, Reza
53062990-b9ba-4d4b-88e0-cc11bff00190
Dhakal, Hom
ed7c4499-110b-4203-b5e7-a2386a1c3214
Shah, Amjad
acbfbb5c-fe5d-4703-8f1b-2397f18e80d8

Kenomore, Michael, Hassan Sayed, Mohamed, Malakooti, Reza, Dhakal, Hom and Shah, Amjad (2018) Shale gas production decline trend over time in the Barnett Shale. Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering, 165, 691-710. (doi:10.1016/j.petrol.2018.02.032).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Natural gas produced from shale formations in the United States over the past decade have altered the oil and gas industry remarkably. The Barnett shale was at the forefront of the shale gas revolution in the United States and was considered to be the highest producing natural gas field in the United States until 2012, yielding the top producer spot to the Marcellus shale. Due to the uncertainty regarding the accurate determination of Estimated Ultimate Recoverable (EUR) in shale gas reservoirs, this paper aims to assess EUR values for the Barnett shale using empirical decline curve methods like the Arp's hyperbolic, Modified Arp's hyperbolic and Doung's method. In addition, we investigated the economic viability of wells over time in the Barnett under various probabilities of success. Throughout this paper, reference is made to two key publications where a similar work was carried out for various shale plays in the United States, including the Barnett shale – though only the Arp's hyperbolic decline was employed. The dataset in this paper consisted of more horizontal wells from covering more counties within the Barnett shale compared to other similar studies. We conclude that either the Arp's hyperbolic or Doung's method can be used to forecast EUR in the Barnett shale as only marginal differences were observed. This is on the basis that production history exceeds 10 months (a maximum of 80 months production history was used). We also obtained reliable and conservative estimates of EUR compared to previous studies.

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More information

Accepted/In Press date: 12 February 2018
e-pub ahead of print date: 19 February 2018
Published date: 1 June 2018
Keywords: estimated ultimate recovery, Barnett shale, Arp's hyperbolic, Doung's method, modified hyperbolic

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 438272
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/438272
ISSN: 0920-4105
PURE UUID: ef0457e8-e120-451a-8917-f38e8f4fdb82
ORCID for Mohamed Hassan Sayed: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-3729-4543

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Date deposited: 04 Mar 2020 17:32
Last modified: 07 Oct 2020 02:27

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Contributors

Author: Michael Kenomore
Author: Mohamed Hassan Sayed ORCID iD
Author: Reza Malakooti
Author: Hom Dhakal
Author: Amjad Shah

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