Uncertainty, decision science, and policy making: A manifesto for a research agenda
Uncertainty, decision science, and policy making: A manifesto for a research agenda
ABSTRACT: The financial crisis of 2008 was unforeseen partly because the academic theories that underpin policy making do not sufficiently account for uncertainty and complexity or learned and evolved human capabilities for managing them. Mainstream theories of decision making tend to be strongly normative and based on wishfully unrealistic “idealized” modeling. In order to develop theories of actual decision making under uncertainty, we need new methodologies that account for how human (sentient) actors often manage uncertain situations “well enough.” Some possibly helpful methodologies, drawing on digital science, focus on the role of emotions in determining people's choices; others examine how people construct narratives that enable them to act; still others combine qualitative with quantitative data.
213-242
Tuckett, David
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Mandel, Antoine
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Mangalagiu, Diana
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Abramson, Allen
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Hinkel, Jochen
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Katsikopoulos, Konstantinos
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Kirman, Alan
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Malleret, Thierry
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Mozetic, Igor
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Ormerod, Paul
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Smith, Robert Elliot
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Venturini, Tommaso
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Wilkinson, Angela
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2015
Tuckett, David
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Mandel, Antoine
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Mangalagiu, Diana
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Abramson, Allen
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Hinkel, Jochen
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Katsikopoulos, Konstantinos
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Kirman, Alan
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Malleret, Thierry
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Mozetic, Igor
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Ormerod, Paul
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Smith, Robert Elliot
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Venturini, Tommaso
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Wilkinson, Angela
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Tuckett, David, Mandel, Antoine, Mangalagiu, Diana, Abramson, Allen, Hinkel, Jochen, Katsikopoulos, Konstantinos, Kirman, Alan, Malleret, Thierry, Mozetic, Igor, Ormerod, Paul, Smith, Robert Elliot, Venturini, Tommaso and Wilkinson, Angela
(2015)
Uncertainty, decision science, and policy making: A manifesto for a research agenda.
Critical Review, 27 (2), .
(doi:10.1080/08913811.2015.1037078).
Abstract
ABSTRACT: The financial crisis of 2008 was unforeseen partly because the academic theories that underpin policy making do not sufficiently account for uncertainty and complexity or learned and evolved human capabilities for managing them. Mainstream theories of decision making tend to be strongly normative and based on wishfully unrealistic “idealized” modeling. In order to develop theories of actual decision making under uncertainty, we need new methodologies that account for how human (sentient) actors often manage uncertain situations “well enough.” Some possibly helpful methodologies, drawing on digital science, focus on the role of emotions in determining people's choices; others examine how people construct narratives that enable them to act; still others combine qualitative with quantitative data.
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e-pub ahead of print date: 11 June 2015
Published date: 2015
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 438751
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/438751
ISSN: 0891-3811
PURE UUID: 76cba169-3197-45a4-8f1b-4ce030492d50
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Date deposited: 23 Mar 2020 18:44
Last modified: 18 Mar 2024 03:38
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Contributors
Author:
David Tuckett
Author:
Antoine Mandel
Author:
Diana Mangalagiu
Author:
Allen Abramson
Author:
Jochen Hinkel
Author:
Alan Kirman
Author:
Thierry Malleret
Author:
Igor Mozetic
Author:
Paul Ormerod
Author:
Robert Elliot Smith
Author:
Tommaso Venturini
Author:
Angela Wilkinson
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