A social, environmental and economic evaluation protocol for potential gas hydrate exploitation projects
A social, environmental and economic evaluation protocol for potential gas hydrate exploitation projects
There is increasing global interest in the potential commercial development of methane gas hydrate as a widespread and abundant unconventional source of natural gas. Previous work has focussed on understanding the nature and distribution of the resource, and potential recovery technology, neglecting assessment of the associated social, economic and environmental consequences. This gap needs to be addressed for any commercial gas hydrate development business case to succeed. Here we develop a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) protocol of gas hydrate development using the ELECTRE III method. Our protocol proposes criteria that evaluate the social, environmental and economic impacts of gas hydrate development proposals, which are weighted to represent the priorities of six identified stakeholder groups. We have tested the protocol on potential commercial gas hydrate development in Alaska through a series of interviews. Our results show that there is no universal preference structure, even within stakeholder groups, indicating that buy-in from all groups is a complex compromise. However, there are two fundamentally opposing groups, one composed of individuals from governmental and industry backgrounds who prioritise economic criteria, and another represented by members of the local community and environmental advocates who prioritise social and environmental criteria. The protocol concludes that gas hydrate development in Alaska is unlikely to be supported under present-day conditions. This work provides the first structured foundation for comprehensive assessment of future development proposals of gas hydrate or other natural resources.
Alaska, Decision-making, ELECTRE III, Energy planning, Multi-criteria decision analysis, Natural gas hydrate
Riley, David
f9649d09-cf4f-4b21-9ada-07d08294dad5
Schaafsma, Marije
937ac629-0fa2-4a11-bdf7-c3688405467d
Marin-Moreno, Héctor
e466cafd-bd5c-47a1-8522-e6938e7086a4
Minshull, Tim A.
bf413fb5-849e-4389-acd7-0cb0d644e6b8
20 February 2020
Riley, David
f9649d09-cf4f-4b21-9ada-07d08294dad5
Schaafsma, Marije
937ac629-0fa2-4a11-bdf7-c3688405467d
Marin-Moreno, Héctor
e466cafd-bd5c-47a1-8522-e6938e7086a4
Minshull, Tim A.
bf413fb5-849e-4389-acd7-0cb0d644e6b8
Riley, David, Schaafsma, Marije, Marin-Moreno, Héctor and Minshull, Tim A.
(2020)
A social, environmental and economic evaluation protocol for potential gas hydrate exploitation projects.
Applied Energy, 263, [114651].
(doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.114651).
Abstract
There is increasing global interest in the potential commercial development of methane gas hydrate as a widespread and abundant unconventional source of natural gas. Previous work has focussed on understanding the nature and distribution of the resource, and potential recovery technology, neglecting assessment of the associated social, economic and environmental consequences. This gap needs to be addressed for any commercial gas hydrate development business case to succeed. Here we develop a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) protocol of gas hydrate development using the ELECTRE III method. Our protocol proposes criteria that evaluate the social, environmental and economic impacts of gas hydrate development proposals, which are weighted to represent the priorities of six identified stakeholder groups. We have tested the protocol on potential commercial gas hydrate development in Alaska through a series of interviews. Our results show that there is no universal preference structure, even within stakeholder groups, indicating that buy-in from all groups is a complex compromise. However, there are two fundamentally opposing groups, one composed of individuals from governmental and industry backgrounds who prioritise economic criteria, and another represented by members of the local community and environmental advocates who prioritise social and environmental criteria. The protocol concludes that gas hydrate development in Alaska is unlikely to be supported under present-day conditions. This work provides the first structured foundation for comprehensive assessment of future development proposals of gas hydrate or other natural resources.
Text
Protocol_paper
- Accepted Manuscript
More information
Accepted/In Press date: 10 February 2020
e-pub ahead of print date: 20 February 2020
Published date: 20 February 2020
Additional Information:
Funding Information: the authors would like to thank all the stakeholders represented in the paper and other individuals from Alaska for their time and input into this paper. We also thank the three anonymous reviewers and editorial staff for their constructive input. Informed consent was obtained for all human subjects in this study. In accordance with confidentiality agreements, raw stakeholder responses are not publically available. Parties interested in acquiring the confidentialised summary data presented in this work should contact the lead author. David Riley was supported by the University of Southampton, United Kingdom, and a SMMI Leverhulme Trust, United Kingdom Doctoral Scholarship. Tim Minshull was supported by a Wolfson Research Merit Award.
Funding Information: informed consent was obtained for all human subjects in this study. In accordance with confidentiality agreements, raw stakeholder responses are not publically available. Parties interested in acquiring the confidentialised summary data presented in this work should contact the lead author. David Riley was supported by the University of Southampton , United Kingdom, and a SMMI Leverhulme Trust , United Kingdom Doctoral Scholarship. Tim Minshull was supported by a Wolfson Research Merit Award.
Keywords:
Alaska, Decision-making, ELECTRE III, Energy planning, Multi-criteria decision analysis, Natural gas hydrate
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 438980
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/438980
ISSN: 0306-2619
PURE UUID: 96e8c59c-c023-454e-87a8-ef91af913eed
Catalogue record
Date deposited: 30 Mar 2020 16:32
Last modified: 17 Mar 2024 05:26
Export record
Altmetrics
Contributors
Author:
David Riley
Author:
Héctor Marin-Moreno
Download statistics
Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.
View more statistics