Upper bound estimators of the population size based on ordinal models for capture-recapture experiments

Abstract

Capture-recapture studies have attracted a lot of attention over the past few decades, especially in applied disciplines where a direct estimate for the size of a population of interest is not available. Epidemiology, ecology, public health, and biodiversity are just a few examples. The estimation of the number of unseen units has been a challenge for theoretical statisticians, and considerable progress has been made in providing lower bound estimators for the population size. In fact, it is well known that consistent estimators for this cannot be provided in the very general case. Considering a case where capture-recapture studies are summarized by a frequency of frequencies distribution, we derive a simple upper bound of the population size based on the cumulative distribution function. We introduce two estimators of this bound, without any specific parametric assumption on the distribution of the observed frequency counts. The behavior of the proposed estimators is investigated using several benchmark datasets and a large-scale simulation experiment based on the scheme discussed by Pledger.

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