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Optimal portfolio choice to split orders during supply disruptions: An application of sport’s principle for routine sourcing: An application of sport's principle for routine sourcing

Optimal portfolio choice to split orders during supply disruptions: An application of sport’s principle for routine sourcing: An application of sport's principle for routine sourcing
Optimal portfolio choice to split orders during supply disruptions: An application of sport’s principle for routine sourcing: An application of sport's principle for routine sourcing

Sourcing in the face of supply chain disruptions has been one of the most challenging tasks in supply chain management, particularly when such disruptions occur due to natural calamities, such as flood, fire, and earthquake, affecting both the primary and the backup suppliers. Invariably, such disruptions lead to reduced supply from the primary supplier, encouraging the supplier to place fresh orders with the backup suppliers. In order to mitigate the adverse effect of supply disruption, in this article we use the concepts underlying the well-known Duckworth–Lewis–Stern method, used in cricket, to revise the supply target of the primary supplier and to decide a target for the backup supplier. We simulated the supply disruption scenarios in an experimental setting by conducting a two-round questionnaire survey among 300 purchase managers. The means and variances of the participants’ estimates of probabilities of meeting the revised targets within the scheduled time for various model-generated supply scenarios were used to find the participants’ risk preferences. In the second-round survey, the participants, clustered in groups of 10, ranked their own risk preferences. These ranks were used to find the optimal portfolio choices. Finally, we validated the theoretical predictions for the risk options using two approaches—one, at the group level by estimating the within- and the between-group risk preferences of buyers, and, two, at the aggregate level, by considering all the participants, fitting quantile regression model to the experimental results, and estimating the risk preference structures for different quantiles of the relative risk–return trade-off distributions.

Duckworth-Lewis-Stern method, Mean-variance decision-theoretic model, Supply disruption, portfolio risk, risk perceptions
0011-7315
1-20
Padhi, Sidhartha S.
56f1be5a-eeba-4a43-8c3f-03a22fce13cd
Mukherjee, Soumyatanu
3eb37c57-3efd-4203-a81b-de3acad02811
Padhi, Sidhartha S.
56f1be5a-eeba-4a43-8c3f-03a22fce13cd
Mukherjee, Soumyatanu
3eb37c57-3efd-4203-a81b-de3acad02811

Padhi, Sidhartha S. and Mukherjee, Soumyatanu (2021) Optimal portfolio choice to split orders during supply disruptions: An application of sport’s principle for routine sourcing: An application of sport's principle for routine sourcing. Decision Sciences, 1-20. (doi:10.1111/deci.12511).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Sourcing in the face of supply chain disruptions has been one of the most challenging tasks in supply chain management, particularly when such disruptions occur due to natural calamities, such as flood, fire, and earthquake, affecting both the primary and the backup suppliers. Invariably, such disruptions lead to reduced supply from the primary supplier, encouraging the supplier to place fresh orders with the backup suppliers. In order to mitigate the adverse effect of supply disruption, in this article we use the concepts underlying the well-known Duckworth–Lewis–Stern method, used in cricket, to revise the supply target of the primary supplier and to decide a target for the backup supplier. We simulated the supply disruption scenarios in an experimental setting by conducting a two-round questionnaire survey among 300 purchase managers. The means and variances of the participants’ estimates of probabilities of meeting the revised targets within the scheduled time for various model-generated supply scenarios were used to find the participants’ risk preferences. In the second-round survey, the participants, clustered in groups of 10, ranked their own risk preferences. These ranks were used to find the optimal portfolio choices. Finally, we validated the theoretical predictions for the risk options using two approaches—one, at the group level by estimating the within- and the between-group risk preferences of buyers, and, two, at the aggregate level, by considering all the participants, fitting quantile regression model to the experimental results, and estimating the risk preference structures for different quantiles of the relative risk–return trade-off distributions.

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Submitted date: 15 May 2020
Accepted/In Press date: 21 December 2020
e-pub ahead of print date: 15 March 2021
Published date: 15 March 2021
Keywords: Duckworth-Lewis-Stern method, Mean-variance decision-theoretic model, Supply disruption, portfolio risk, risk perceptions

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 439162
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/439162
ISSN: 0011-7315
PURE UUID: 583f7827-ab34-4e50-8429-1da65b863157
ORCID for Soumyatanu Mukherjee: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-0674-1064

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Date deposited: 06 Apr 2020 16:30
Last modified: 28 Apr 2022 02:30

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Author: Sidhartha S. Padhi

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