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Impact of model resolution on tropical cyclone simulation using the HighResMIP-PRIMAVERA multi-model ensemble

Impact of model resolution on tropical cyclone simulation using the HighResMIP-PRIMAVERA multi-model ensemble
Impact of model resolution on tropical cyclone simulation using the HighResMIP-PRIMAVERA multi-model ensemble
A multi-model, multi-resolution set of simulations over the period 1950-2014 using a common forcing protocol from CMIP6 HighResMIP have been completed by six modelling groups. Analysis of tropical cyclone performance using two different tracking algorithms suggests that enhanced resolution towards 25 km typically leads to more frequent and stronger tropical cyclones, together with improvements in spatial distribution and storm structure. Both of these factors reduce typical GCM biases seen at lower resolution.

Using single ensemble members of each model, there is little evidence of systematic improvement in interannual variability in either storm frequency or Accumulated Cyclone Energy compared to observations when resolution is increased. Changes in the relationships between large-scale drivers of climate variability and tropical cyclone variability in the Atlantic are also not robust to model resolution.

However using a larger ensemble of simulations (of up to 14 members) with one model at different resolutions does show evidence of increased skill at higher resolution. The ensemble mean correlation of Atlantic interannual tropical cyclone variability increases from ∼0.5 to ∼0.65 when resolution increases from 250 km to 100 km. In the North West Pacific the skill keeps increasing with 50 km resolution to 0.7. These calculations also suggest that more than six members are required to adequately distinguish the impact of resolution within the forced signal from the weather noise.
0894-8755
2557-2583
Roberts, Malcolm John
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Camp, Joanne
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Seddon, Jon
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Vidale, Pier Luigi
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Hodges, Kevin
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Vanniere, Benoit
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Mecking, Jenny
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Haarsma, Rein
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Bellucci, Alessio
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Scoccimarro, Enrico
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Caron, Louis-philippe
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Chauvin, Fabrice
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Terray, Laurent
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Valcke, Sophie
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Moine, Marie-pierre
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Putrasahan, Dian
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Roberts, Christopher
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Senan, Retish
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Zarzycki, Colin
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Ullrich, Paul
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Roberts, Malcolm John
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Camp, Joanne
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Seddon, Jon
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Vidale, Pier Luigi
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Hodges, Kevin
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Vanniere, Benoit
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Mecking, Jenny
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Haarsma, Rein
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Bellucci, Alessio
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Scoccimarro, Enrico
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Caron, Louis-philippe
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Chauvin, Fabrice
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Terray, Laurent
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Valcke, Sophie
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Moine, Marie-pierre
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Putrasahan, Dian
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Roberts, Christopher
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Senan, Retish
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Zarzycki, Colin
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Ullrich, Paul
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Roberts, Malcolm John, Camp, Joanne, Seddon, Jon, Vidale, Pier Luigi, Hodges, Kevin, Vanniere, Benoit, Mecking, Jenny, Haarsma, Rein, Bellucci, Alessio, Scoccimarro, Enrico, Caron, Louis-philippe, Chauvin, Fabrice, Terray, Laurent, Valcke, Sophie, Moine, Marie-pierre, Putrasahan, Dian, Roberts, Christopher, Senan, Retish, Zarzycki, Colin and Ullrich, Paul (2020) Impact of model resolution on tropical cyclone simulation using the HighResMIP-PRIMAVERA multi-model ensemble. Journal of Climate, 33 (7), 2557-2583. (doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0639.1).

Record type: Article

Abstract

A multi-model, multi-resolution set of simulations over the period 1950-2014 using a common forcing protocol from CMIP6 HighResMIP have been completed by six modelling groups. Analysis of tropical cyclone performance using two different tracking algorithms suggests that enhanced resolution towards 25 km typically leads to more frequent and stronger tropical cyclones, together with improvements in spatial distribution and storm structure. Both of these factors reduce typical GCM biases seen at lower resolution.

Using single ensemble members of each model, there is little evidence of systematic improvement in interannual variability in either storm frequency or Accumulated Cyclone Energy compared to observations when resolution is increased. Changes in the relationships between large-scale drivers of climate variability and tropical cyclone variability in the Atlantic are also not robust to model resolution.

However using a larger ensemble of simulations (of up to 14 members) with one model at different resolutions does show evidence of increased skill at higher resolution. The ensemble mean correlation of Atlantic interannual tropical cyclone variability increases from ∼0.5 to ∼0.65 when resolution increases from 250 km to 100 km. In the North West Pacific the skill keeps increasing with 50 km resolution to 0.7. These calculations also suggest that more than six members are required to adequately distinguish the impact of resolution within the forced signal from the weather noise.

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e-pub ahead of print date: 25 January 2020
Published date: 1 April 2020

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 439282
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/439282
ISSN: 0894-8755
PURE UUID: ec30d9e4-6aae-4dbe-a16a-ebb755ba70cf

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Date deposited: 07 Apr 2020 16:36
Last modified: 25 Nov 2021 19:30

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Contributors

Author: Malcolm John Roberts
Author: Joanne Camp
Author: Jon Seddon
Author: Pier Luigi Vidale
Author: Kevin Hodges
Author: Benoit Vanniere
Author: Jenny Mecking
Author: Rein Haarsma
Author: Alessio Bellucci
Author: Enrico Scoccimarro
Author: Louis-philippe Caron
Author: Fabrice Chauvin
Author: Laurent Terray
Author: Sophie Valcke
Author: Marie-pierre Moine
Author: Dian Putrasahan
Author: Christopher Roberts
Author: Retish Senan
Author: Colin Zarzycki
Author: Paul Ullrich

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