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Evidence informing the UK's COVID-19 public health response must be transparent

Evidence informing the UK's COVID-19 public health response must be transparent
Evidence informing the UK's COVID-19 public health response must be transparent
The UK Government asserts that its response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is based on evidence and expert modelling. However, different scientists can reach different conclusions based on the same evidence, and small differences in assumptions can lead to large differences in model predictions.
Our country's response to COVID-19 is demonstrably different from how most other countries are responding globally, including elsewhere in Europe. As the government has stressed, it is imperative to delay and flatten the epidemic curve to ensure the National Health Service can cope.1 This is particularly essential for the UK, which only has 2·5 hospital beds per 1000 population, fewer than in Italy (3·2 per 1000), France (6·0), and Germany (8·0). Initial data from Italy have shown that 9–11% of actively infected patients with COVID-19 required intensive care during the first 10 days of March, 2020.2
0140-6736
1036-1037
Alwan, Nisreen A
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Bhopal, Raj
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Burgess, Rochelle A
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Colbourn, Tim
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Cuevas, Luis E
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Smith, George Davey
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Egger, Matthias
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Eldridge, Sandra
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Gallo, Valentina
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Gilthorpe, Mark S
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Greenhalgh, Trish
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Griffiths, Christopher
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Hunter, Paul R
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Jaffar, Shabbar
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Jepson, Ruth
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Low, Nicola
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Martineau, Adrian
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Mccoy, David
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Orcutt, Miriam
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Pankhania, Bharat
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Pikhart, Hynek
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Pollock, Allyson
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Scally, Gabriel
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Smith, James
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Sridhar, Devi
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Taylor, Stephanie
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Tennant, Peter W G
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Themistocleous, Yrene
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Wilson, Anne
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Alwan, Nisreen A
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Bhopal, Raj
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Burgess, Rochelle A
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Colbourn, Tim
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Cuevas, Luis E
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Smith, George Davey
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Egger, Matthias
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Eldridge, Sandra
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Gallo, Valentina
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Gilthorpe, Mark S
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Greenhalgh, Trish
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Griffiths, Christopher
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Hunter, Paul R
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Jaffar, Shabbar
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Jepson, Ruth
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Low, Nicola
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Martineau, Adrian
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Mccoy, David
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Orcutt, Miriam
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Pankhania, Bharat
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Pikhart, Hynek
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Pollock, Allyson
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Scally, Gabriel
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Smith, James
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Sridhar, Devi
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Taylor, Stephanie
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Tennant, Peter W G
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Themistocleous, Yrene
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Wilson, Anne
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Alwan, Nisreen A, Bhopal, Raj, Burgess, Rochelle A, Colbourn, Tim, Cuevas, Luis E, Smith, George Davey, Egger, Matthias, Eldridge, Sandra, Gallo, Valentina, Gilthorpe, Mark S, Greenhalgh, Trish, Griffiths, Christopher, Hunter, Paul R, Jaffar, Shabbar, Jepson, Ruth, Low, Nicola, Martineau, Adrian, Mccoy, David, Orcutt, Miriam, Pankhania, Bharat, Pikhart, Hynek, Pollock, Allyson, Scally, Gabriel, Smith, James, Sridhar, Devi, Taylor, Stephanie, Tennant, Peter W G, Themistocleous, Yrene and Wilson, Anne (2020) Evidence informing the UK's COVID-19 public health response must be transparent. The Lancet, 395 (10229), 1036-1037. (doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30667-X).

Record type: Letter

Abstract

The UK Government asserts that its response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is based on evidence and expert modelling. However, different scientists can reach different conclusions based on the same evidence, and small differences in assumptions can lead to large differences in model predictions.
Our country's response to COVID-19 is demonstrably different from how most other countries are responding globally, including elsewhere in Europe. As the government has stressed, it is imperative to delay and flatten the epidemic curve to ensure the National Health Service can cope.1 This is particularly essential for the UK, which only has 2·5 hospital beds per 1000 population, fewer than in Italy (3·2 per 1000), France (6·0), and Germany (8·0). Initial data from Italy have shown that 9–11% of actively infected patients with COVID-19 required intensive care during the first 10 days of March, 2020.2

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More information

Published date: 17 March 2020

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 439442
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/439442
ISSN: 0140-6736
PURE UUID: 3f309600-347d-452e-825b-20e7fd39d2ad
ORCID for Nisreen A Alwan: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-4134-8463

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Date deposited: 23 Apr 2020 16:30
Last modified: 23 Jul 2022 02:10

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Contributors

Author: Nisreen A Alwan ORCID iD
Author: Raj Bhopal
Author: Rochelle A Burgess
Author: Tim Colbourn
Author: Luis E Cuevas
Author: George Davey Smith
Author: Matthias Egger
Author: Sandra Eldridge
Author: Valentina Gallo
Author: Mark S Gilthorpe
Author: Trish Greenhalgh
Author: Christopher Griffiths
Author: Paul R Hunter
Author: Shabbar Jaffar
Author: Ruth Jepson
Author: Nicola Low
Author: Adrian Martineau
Author: David Mccoy
Author: Miriam Orcutt
Author: Bharat Pankhania
Author: Hynek Pikhart
Author: Allyson Pollock
Author: Gabriel Scally
Author: James Smith
Author: Devi Sridhar
Author: Stephanie Taylor
Author: Peter W G Tennant
Author: Yrene Themistocleous
Author: Anne Wilson

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