Naturalistic heuristics for decision making

Keller, Niklas, Cokely, Edward T., Katsikopoulos, Konstantinos V. and Wegwarth, Odette (2010) Naturalistic heuristics for decision making. Journal of Cognitive Engineering and Decision Making, 4 (3), 256-274. (doi:10.1518/155534310X12844000801168).

Abstract

Over the last 20 years, both naturalistic decision making and fast and frugal heuristics programs have radically broken with mainstream decision science, moving beyond the confines of artificial tasks and safe academic laboratories. We document commonalities of these programs and discuss ways in which a synthesis could contribute to a more relevant, precise, predictive, and effective decision science. We begin by reviewing the common roots and philosophies of the two programs, such as their respect for the capable decision maker and their acknowledgment of the importance of task ecology. We then identify four specific areas of synergetic potential, including ecological rationality and metacognition. Our review culminates in a case study of naturalistic heuristics based on a particular class of fast and frugal heuristics. These fast and frugal trees provide examples of effective, well-specified decision-making algorithms applied in a naturalistic domain: emergency medical diagnosis. By leveraging the strengths of each program, we point out some of the ways in which more sustainable progress can be fostered on issues that matter the most—for example, decisions that save and transform lives.

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Contributors

Author: Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos

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