An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China
An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China
Responding to an outbreak of a novel coronavirus [agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)] in December 2019, China banned travel to and from Wuhan city on 23 January 2020 and implemented a national emergency response. We investigated the spread and control of COVID-19 using a data set that included case reports, human movement, and public health interventions. The Wuhan shutdown was associated with the delayed arrival of COVID-19 in other cities by 2.91 days. Cities that implemented control measures preemptively reported fewer cases on average (13.0) in the first week of their outbreaks compared with cities that started control later (20.6). Suspending intracity public transport, closing entertainment venues, and banning public gatherings were associated with reductions in case incidence. The national emergency response appears to have delayed the growth and limited the size of the COVID-19 epidemic in China, averting hundreds of thousands of cases by 19 February (day 50).
638-642
Tian, Huaiyu
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Liu, Yonghong
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Li, Yidan
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Wu, Chieh-Hsi
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Chen, Bin
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Kraemer, Moritz U.G.
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Li, Bingying
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Cai, Jun
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Xu, Bo
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Yang, Qiqi
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8 May 2020
Tian, Huaiyu
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Liu, Yonghong
b390d97d-bea8-4c3e-bb43-96fe0c13808a
Li, Yidan
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Wu, Chieh-Hsi
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Chen, Bin
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Kraemer, Moritz U.G.
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Li, Bingying
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Cai, Jun
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Xu, Bo
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Yang, Qiqi
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Tian, Huaiyu, Liu, Yonghong, Li, Yidan, Wu, Chieh-Hsi, Chen, Bin, Kraemer, Moritz U.G., Li, Bingying, Cai, Jun, Xu, Bo and Yang, Qiqi
(2020)
An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China.
Science, 368 (6491), .
(doi:10.1126/science.abb6105).
Abstract
Responding to an outbreak of a novel coronavirus [agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)] in December 2019, China banned travel to and from Wuhan city on 23 January 2020 and implemented a national emergency response. We investigated the spread and control of COVID-19 using a data set that included case reports, human movement, and public health interventions. The Wuhan shutdown was associated with the delayed arrival of COVID-19 in other cities by 2.91 days. Cities that implemented control measures preemptively reported fewer cases on average (13.0) in the first week of their outbreaks compared with cities that started control later (20.6). Suspending intracity public transport, closing entertainment venues, and banning public gatherings were associated with reductions in case incidence. The national emergency response appears to have delayed the growth and limited the size of the COVID-19 epidemic in China, averting hundreds of thousands of cases by 19 February (day 50).
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Accepted/In Press date: 27 March 2020
e-pub ahead of print date: 31 March 2020
Published date: 8 May 2020
Additional Information:
Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 439516
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/439516
ISSN: 0036-8075
PURE UUID: f525d96c-c1f1-4db7-9476-cbb0425cbd94
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Date deposited: 24 Apr 2020 16:44
Last modified: 17 Mar 2024 04:00
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Contributors
Author:
Huaiyu Tian
Author:
Yonghong Liu
Author:
Yidan Li
Author:
Bin Chen
Author:
Moritz U.G. Kraemer
Author:
Bingying Li
Author:
Jun Cai
Author:
Bo Xu
Author:
Qiqi Yang
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