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Non-linear interaction modulates global extreme sea levels, coastal flood exposure, and impacts

Non-linear interaction modulates global extreme sea levels, coastal flood exposure, and impacts
Non-linear interaction modulates global extreme sea levels, coastal flood exposure, and impacts
We introduce a novel approach to statistically assess the non-linear interaction of tide and non-tidal residual in order to quantify its contribution to extreme sea levels and hence its role in modulating coastal protection levels, globally. We demonstrate that extreme sea levels are up to 30% (or 70 cm) higher if non-linear interactions are not accounted for (e.g., by independently adding astronomical and non-astronomical components, as is often done in impact case studies). These overestimates are similar to recent sea-level rise projections to 2100 at some locations. Furthermore, we further find evidence for changes in this non-linear interaction over time, which has the potential for counteracting the increasing flood risk associated with sea-level rise and tidal and/or meteorological changes alone. Finally, we show how accounting for non-linearity in coastal impact assessment modulates coastal exposure, reducing recent estimates of global coastal flood costs by ~16%, and population affected by ~8%.
2041-1723
Arns, Arne
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Wahl, Thomas
41d8551e-c5ac-4017-a643-bf77d11feaae
Wolff, Claudia
e1c98db0-156d-49db-9d03-710eb3c96ab6
Vafeidis, Athanasios T.
4b11a988-6eb8-4732-bc1b-aa67a2862ea4
Haigh, Ivan D.
945ff20a-589c-47b7-b06f-61804367eb2d
Woodworth, Philip
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Niehüser, Sebastian
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Jensen, Jürgen
5188f969-c5e8-47e2-9e27-771067712095
Arns, Arne
2c3fd31d-325c-4e21-b02c-b530b9c26840
Wahl, Thomas
41d8551e-c5ac-4017-a643-bf77d11feaae
Wolff, Claudia
e1c98db0-156d-49db-9d03-710eb3c96ab6
Vafeidis, Athanasios T.
4b11a988-6eb8-4732-bc1b-aa67a2862ea4
Haigh, Ivan D.
945ff20a-589c-47b7-b06f-61804367eb2d
Woodworth, Philip
7c01a80b-64c8-458b-b9b2-ca76f0f508f3
Niehüser, Sebastian
673e09dc-fb8d-4b58-a59d-edc48f7b8d01
Jensen, Jürgen
5188f969-c5e8-47e2-9e27-771067712095

Arns, Arne, Wahl, Thomas, Wolff, Claudia, Vafeidis, Athanasios T., Haigh, Ivan D., Woodworth, Philip, Niehüser, Sebastian and Jensen, Jürgen (2020) Non-linear interaction modulates global extreme sea levels, coastal flood exposure, and impacts. Nature Communications, 11 (1), [1918]. (doi:10.1038/s41467-020-15752-5).

Record type: Article

Abstract

We introduce a novel approach to statistically assess the non-linear interaction of tide and non-tidal residual in order to quantify its contribution to extreme sea levels and hence its role in modulating coastal protection levels, globally. We demonstrate that extreme sea levels are up to 30% (or 70 cm) higher if non-linear interactions are not accounted for (e.g., by independently adding astronomical and non-astronomical components, as is often done in impact case studies). These overestimates are similar to recent sea-level rise projections to 2100 at some locations. Furthermore, we further find evidence for changes in this non-linear interaction over time, which has the potential for counteracting the increasing flood risk associated with sea-level rise and tidal and/or meteorological changes alone. Finally, we show how accounting for non-linearity in coastal impact assessment modulates coastal exposure, reducing recent estimates of global coastal flood costs by ~16%, and population affected by ~8%.

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s41467-020-15752-5 - Version of Record
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Accepted/In Press date: 20 March 2020
Published date: 21 April 2020

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 439661
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/439661
ISSN: 2041-1723
PURE UUID: bf4131d2-87a2-421e-9a8b-19ecd3925cbe

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Date deposited: 29 Apr 2020 16:30
Last modified: 25 Nov 2021 23:54

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Contributors

Author: Arne Arns
Author: Thomas Wahl
Author: Claudia Wolff
Author: Athanasios T. Vafeidis
Author: Ivan D. Haigh
Author: Philip Woodworth
Author: Sebastian Niehüser
Author: Jürgen Jensen

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