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Changing preferences for Brexit: Identifying the groups with volatile support for 'Leave'

Changing preferences for Brexit: Identifying the groups with volatile support for 'Leave'
Changing preferences for Brexit: Identifying the groups with volatile support for 'Leave'
This paper explores the dynamics of support for the UK’s departure from the EU over the course of 2016 and the first quarter of 2017. It further identifies groups with a particular profile in terms of political attitudes and behaviours and explores whether these groups show a marked change in their support for leave. The paper draws on two contrasting perspectives on voter volatility. While the first one considers the phenomenon to be a characteristic of whimsical, uninterested and disengaged people, the second one sees it in a more positive light as it associates volatility with the informed and emancipate citizen holding politicians to account. The study uses Waves 6, 7 and 8 of Understanding Society and conducts various analyses, including latent class analysis (LCA), to explore the research questions. LCA yields four groups with distinct political profiles. Only one of these groups, labelled “the highly engaged and satisfied”, shows a significant increase in support for leave. The other groups, including “the non-engaged” and “the dissatisfied”, are not becoming significantly more or less supportive of leave. The results are thus more in accordance with the second perspective.
Centre for Learning and Life Chances in Knowledge Economies and Societies (LLAKES)
Janmaat, Jan Germen
8384f514-1116-47e5-bdff-ed45df636971
Melis, Gabriell
afbe9a62-21ef-4426-b87c-a8ba9d39e5e8
Green, Andy
8a3d99e5-0a0a-4df0-8725-df42a39ce3df
Pensiero, Nicola
a4abb10f-51db-493d-9dcc-5259e526e96b
Janmaat, Jan Germen
8384f514-1116-47e5-bdff-ed45df636971
Melis, Gabriell
afbe9a62-21ef-4426-b87c-a8ba9d39e5e8
Green, Andy
8a3d99e5-0a0a-4df0-8725-df42a39ce3df
Pensiero, Nicola
a4abb10f-51db-493d-9dcc-5259e526e96b

Janmaat, Jan Germen, Melis, Gabriell, Green, Andy and Pensiero, Nicola (2018) Changing preferences for Brexit: Identifying the groups with volatile support for 'Leave' Centre for Learning and Life Chances in Knowledge Economies and Societies (LLAKES) 46pp.

Record type: Monograph (Project Report)

Abstract

This paper explores the dynamics of support for the UK’s departure from the EU over the course of 2016 and the first quarter of 2017. It further identifies groups with a particular profile in terms of political attitudes and behaviours and explores whether these groups show a marked change in their support for leave. The paper draws on two contrasting perspectives on voter volatility. While the first one considers the phenomenon to be a characteristic of whimsical, uninterested and disengaged people, the second one sees it in a more positive light as it associates volatility with the informed and emancipate citizen holding politicians to account. The study uses Waves 6, 7 and 8 of Understanding Society and conducts various analyses, including latent class analysis (LCA), to explore the research questions. LCA yields four groups with distinct political profiles. Only one of these groups, labelled “the highly engaged and satisfied”, shows a significant increase in support for leave. The other groups, including “the non-engaged” and “the dissatisfied”, are not becoming significantly more or less supportive of leave. The results are thus more in accordance with the second perspective.

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More information

Published date: 2018

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 439743
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/439743
PURE UUID: 8532145a-17df-4c1d-8044-a2bd734f0aed
ORCID for Nicola Pensiero: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-2823-9852

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 01 May 2020 16:34
Last modified: 13 Dec 2021 03:37

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Contributors

Author: Jan Germen Janmaat
Author: Gabriell Melis
Author: Andy Green
Author: Nicola Pensiero ORCID iD

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