A future climate scenario of regional changes in extreme climate events, over China using the PRECIS climate model
A future climate scenario of regional changes in extreme climate events, over China using the PRECIS climate model
Based on the PRECIS climate model system, we simulate the distribution of the present (1961~1990) and future (2071~2100) extreme climate events in China under the IPCC SRES B2 scenario. The results show that for the present case PRECIS simulates well the spatial distribution of extreme climate events when compared with observations. In the future the occurrence of hot events is projected to be more frequent and the growing season will lengthen, while the occurrence of cold events is likely to be much rarer. A warming environment will also give rise to changes in extreme precipitation events. There would be an overall increasing trend in extreme precipitation events over most of China. The southeast coastal zone, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and North China are projected to experience more extreme precipitation than the present.
regional climate model, PRECIS, model validation, SRES B2 scenario, extreme climate events, China
L24702
Zhang, Y.
f812509d-2a3c-41aa-8ba1-68210952d5a6
Xu, Y.
30b17987-352d-4c0e-b58b-25c03dcd223d
Dong, W.
439bf165-4a08-4e02-aec9-f73d83ede6a7
Cao, L.
83564448-ec0d-4854-8b46-caf823535540
Sparrow, M.
0a312725-a227-4199-8852-baf7a0869768
2006
Zhang, Y.
f812509d-2a3c-41aa-8ba1-68210952d5a6
Xu, Y.
30b17987-352d-4c0e-b58b-25c03dcd223d
Dong, W.
439bf165-4a08-4e02-aec9-f73d83ede6a7
Cao, L.
83564448-ec0d-4854-8b46-caf823535540
Sparrow, M.
0a312725-a227-4199-8852-baf7a0869768
Zhang, Y., Xu, Y., Dong, W., Cao, L. and Sparrow, M.
(2006)
A future climate scenario of regional changes in extreme climate events, over China using the PRECIS climate model.
Geophysical Research Letters, 33 (24), .
(doi:10.1029/2006GL027229).
Abstract
Based on the PRECIS climate model system, we simulate the distribution of the present (1961~1990) and future (2071~2100) extreme climate events in China under the IPCC SRES B2 scenario. The results show that for the present case PRECIS simulates well the spatial distribution of extreme climate events when compared with observations. In the future the occurrence of hot events is projected to be more frequent and the growing season will lengthen, while the occurrence of cold events is likely to be much rarer. A warming environment will also give rise to changes in extreme precipitation events. There would be an overall increasing trend in extreme precipitation events over most of China. The southeast coastal zone, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and North China are projected to experience more extreme precipitation than the present.
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Published date: 2006
Keywords:
regional climate model, PRECIS, model validation, SRES B2 scenario, extreme climate events, China
Organisations:
National Oceanography Centre,Southampton
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 44083
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/44083
ISSN: 0094-8276
PURE UUID: 660173ea-11d4-4d2f-a849-c067767112f9
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Date deposited: 12 Feb 2007
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 09:00
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Contributors
Author:
Y. Zhang
Author:
Y. Xu
Author:
W. Dong
Author:
L. Cao
Author:
M. Sparrow
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