The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China
The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China
The ongoing COVID-19 outbreak has expanded rapidly throughout China. Major behavioral, clinical, and state interventions are underway currently to mitigate the epidemic and prevent the persistence of the virus in human populations in China and worldwide. It remains unclear how these unprecedented interventions, including travel restrictions, have affected COVID-19 spread in China. We use real-time mobility data from Wuhan and detailed case data including travel history to elucidate the role of case importation on transmission in cities across China and ascertain the impact of control measures. Early on, the spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases in China was well explained by human mobility data. Following the implementation of control measures, this correlation dropped and growth rates became negative in most locations, although shifts in the demographics of reported cases are still indicative of local chains of transmission outside Wuhan. This study shows that the drastic control measures implemented in China have substantially mitigated the spread of COVID-19.
493-497
Kraemer, Moritz U.G.
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Yang, Chia-Hung
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Gutierrez, Bernardo
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Wu, Chieh-Hsi
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Klein, Brennan
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Pigott, David M.
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du Plessis, Louis
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Faria, Nuno R.
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Li, Ruoran
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Hanage, William P.
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1 May 2020
Kraemer, Moritz U.G.
5d2b1994-4d71-4eb8-93dd-d948ba164fa2
Yang, Chia-Hung
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Gutierrez, Bernardo
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Wu, Chieh-Hsi
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Klein, Brennan
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Pigott, David M.
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du Plessis, Louis
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Faria, Nuno R.
cc78a30a-2b32-4b9b-9d46-5c7bd842da37
Li, Ruoran
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Hanage, William P.
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Kraemer, Moritz U.G., Yang, Chia-Hung, Gutierrez, Bernardo, Wu, Chieh-Hsi, Klein, Brennan, Pigott, David M., du Plessis, Louis, Faria, Nuno R., Li, Ruoran and Hanage, William P.
(2020)
The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China.
Science, 368 (6490), .
(doi:10.1101/2020.03.02.20026708).
Abstract
The ongoing COVID-19 outbreak has expanded rapidly throughout China. Major behavioral, clinical, and state interventions are underway currently to mitigate the epidemic and prevent the persistence of the virus in human populations in China and worldwide. It remains unclear how these unprecedented interventions, including travel restrictions, have affected COVID-19 spread in China. We use real-time mobility data from Wuhan and detailed case data including travel history to elucidate the role of case importation on transmission in cities across China and ascertain the impact of control measures. Early on, the spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases in China was well explained by human mobility data. Following the implementation of control measures, this correlation dropped and growth rates became negative in most locations, although shifts in the demographics of reported cases are still indicative of local chains of transmission outside Wuhan. This study shows that the drastic control measures implemented in China have substantially mitigated the spread of COVID-19.
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More information
Accepted/In Press date: 23 March 2020
e-pub ahead of print date: 25 March 2020
Published date: 1 May 2020
Additional Information:
Funding Information:
H.T., O.G.P., and M.U.G.K. acknowledge support from the Oxford Martin School. M.U.G.K. is supported by a Branco Weiss Fellowship. B.G. is supported by a Universities of Academic Excellence Scholarship Program of the Secretariat for Higher Education, Science, Technology, and Innovation of the Republic of Ecuador (grant no. ARSEQ-BEC-003163-2017). N.R.F. is supported by a Sir Henry Dale Fellowship. W.P.H. is supported by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences (grant no. U54GM088558). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
Publisher Copyright:
Copyright © 2020 The Authors,
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 441514
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/441514
ISSN: 0036-8075
PURE UUID: 28996b4e-7f3b-4df6-a028-982935c3baec
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Date deposited: 16 Jun 2020 16:34
Last modified: 17 Mar 2024 04:00
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Contributors
Author:
Moritz U.G. Kraemer
Author:
Chia-Hung Yang
Author:
Bernardo Gutierrez
Author:
Brennan Klein
Author:
David M. Pigott
Author:
Louis du Plessis
Author:
Nuno R. Faria
Author:
Ruoran Li
Author:
William P. Hanage
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