Understanding long-term orbital debris population dynamics
Understanding long-term orbital debris population dynamics
Linear growth of the orbital debris population is observed in the results of many evolutionary models when they are used to simulate the effects of the widespread adoption of the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) debris mitigation guidelines. Such linear growth seemingly confirms the belief that adopting these debris mitigation guidelines will have substantial and positive benefits on the orbital debris population. However, this outcome is not expected from analyses of simple systems models. Either the systems model is too simplistic, or the linear growth of the debris population is actually the beginnings of exponential growth, which is difficult to discern over the typical analysis period. To resolve this ambiguity, the Debris Analysis and Monitoring Architecture to the Geosynchronous Environment (DAMAGE) model was used to perform ultra-long projections of the future debris population ≥ 10 cm in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) under highly optimistic debris mitigation conditions. The DAMAGE results showed that the linear growth rate observed for the first 200 years of the projection period was transient and the growth was exponential, even with the ongoing and widespread adoption of debris mitigation measures. The population growth was driven by the accumulation of orbital debris at altitudes between 1200 km and 1500 km, even though simulated launch activity to that region was limited. Further, the results highlighted a tendency for high and sustained collision rates at altitudes below 700 km, predominantly due to conjunctions between spacecraft and upper stages decaying through this region in observance with the “25-year rule”. Overall, these results indicate that additional, and possibly new, measures to mitigate the effects of orbital debris may be needed, with particular emphasis on post-mission disposal and measures that protect the 1200-1500 km region in LEO.
long-term population dynamics, simulation, space debris
164-170
Lewis, Hugh
e9048cd8-c188-49cb-8e2a-45f6b316336a
September 2020
Lewis, Hugh
e9048cd8-c188-49cb-8e2a-45f6b316336a
Lewis, Hugh
(2020)
Understanding long-term orbital debris population dynamics.
Journal of Space Safety Engineering, 7 (3), .
(doi:10.1016/j.jsse.2020.06.006).
Abstract
Linear growth of the orbital debris population is observed in the results of many evolutionary models when they are used to simulate the effects of the widespread adoption of the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) debris mitigation guidelines. Such linear growth seemingly confirms the belief that adopting these debris mitigation guidelines will have substantial and positive benefits on the orbital debris population. However, this outcome is not expected from analyses of simple systems models. Either the systems model is too simplistic, or the linear growth of the debris population is actually the beginnings of exponential growth, which is difficult to discern over the typical analysis period. To resolve this ambiguity, the Debris Analysis and Monitoring Architecture to the Geosynchronous Environment (DAMAGE) model was used to perform ultra-long projections of the future debris population ≥ 10 cm in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) under highly optimistic debris mitigation conditions. The DAMAGE results showed that the linear growth rate observed for the first 200 years of the projection period was transient and the growth was exponential, even with the ongoing and widespread adoption of debris mitigation measures. The population growth was driven by the accumulation of orbital debris at altitudes between 1200 km and 1500 km, even though simulated launch activity to that region was limited. Further, the results highlighted a tendency for high and sustained collision rates at altitudes below 700 km, predominantly due to conjunctions between spacecraft and upper stages decaying through this region in observance with the “25-year rule”. Overall, these results indicate that additional, and possibly new, measures to mitigate the effects of orbital debris may be needed, with particular emphasis on post-mission disposal and measures that protect the 1200-1500 km region in LEO.
Text
Understanding long-term OD population dynamics
- Accepted Manuscript
More information
Accepted/In Press date: 12 June 2020
e-pub ahead of print date: 26 June 2020
Published date: September 2020
Additional Information:
Funding Information:
The author would like to thank colleagues from the Space Debris Office of the European Space Agency for the provision of and permission to use the MASTER population and launch traffic for this work.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2020
Keywords:
long-term population dynamics, simulation, space debris
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 442318
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/442318
ISSN: 2468-8967
PURE UUID: cf11df33-49f8-497a-babf-0d6b4cafb640
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Date deposited: 13 Jul 2020 16:31
Last modified: 17 Mar 2024 05:44
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