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Spatial forecasting of seismicity provided from Earth observation by space satellite technology

Spatial forecasting of seismicity provided from Earth observation by space satellite technology
Spatial forecasting of seismicity provided from Earth observation by space satellite technology
Understanding the controls on the distribution and magnitude of earthquakes is required for effective earthquake forecasting. We present a study that demonstrates that the distribution and size of earthquakes in Italy correlates with the steady state rate at which the Earth’s crust moves. We use a new high-resolution horizontal strain rate (S) field determined from a very dense velocity field derived from the combination of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and satellite radar interferometry from two decades of observations. Through a statistical approach we study the correlation between the S and the magnitude of M ≥ 2.5 earthquakes that occurred in the same period of satellite observations. We found that the probability of earthquakes occurring is linked to S by a linear correlation, and more specifically the probability that a strong seismic event occurs doubles with the doubling of S. It also means that lower horizontal strain rate zone can have as large earthquakes as high horizontal strain rate zones, just with a reduced probability. The work demonstrates an independent and quantitative tool to spatially forecast seismicity.
2045-2322
Farolfi, Gregorio
2d54ab99-eb9f-4d8b-9d15-4928ef07a4de
Keir, Derek
5616f81f-bf1b-4678-a167-3160b5647c65
Corti, Giacomo
dce88b12-5b7a-43b1-8a58-5bd1bc13634c
Casagli, Nicola
8af41e26-f1c7-450c-b8e2-efa0bd68f8a3
Farolfi, Gregorio
2d54ab99-eb9f-4d8b-9d15-4928ef07a4de
Keir, Derek
5616f81f-bf1b-4678-a167-3160b5647c65
Corti, Giacomo
dce88b12-5b7a-43b1-8a58-5bd1bc13634c
Casagli, Nicola
8af41e26-f1c7-450c-b8e2-efa0bd68f8a3

Farolfi, Gregorio, Keir, Derek, Corti, Giacomo and Casagli, Nicola (2020) Spatial forecasting of seismicity provided from Earth observation by space satellite technology. Scientific Reports, 10 (1), [9696]. (doi:10.1038/s41598-020-66478-9).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Understanding the controls on the distribution and magnitude of earthquakes is required for effective earthquake forecasting. We present a study that demonstrates that the distribution and size of earthquakes in Italy correlates with the steady state rate at which the Earth’s crust moves. We use a new high-resolution horizontal strain rate (S) field determined from a very dense velocity field derived from the combination of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and satellite radar interferometry from two decades of observations. Through a statistical approach we study the correlation between the S and the magnitude of M ≥ 2.5 earthquakes that occurred in the same period of satellite observations. We found that the probability of earthquakes occurring is linked to S by a linear correlation, and more specifically the probability that a strong seismic event occurs doubles with the doubling of S. It also means that lower horizontal strain rate zone can have as large earthquakes as high horizontal strain rate zones, just with a reduced probability. The work demonstrates an independent and quantitative tool to spatially forecast seismicity.

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s41598-020-66478-9 - Version of Record
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More information

Accepted/In Press date: 18 March 2020
e-pub ahead of print date: 16 June 2020
Published date: 2020

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 442636
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/442636
ISSN: 2045-2322
PURE UUID: dc226b08-03a5-41dd-a226-1520e3b055b8
ORCID for Derek Keir: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-8787-8446

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Date deposited: 21 Jul 2020 16:54
Last modified: 26 Nov 2021 02:57

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Contributors

Author: Gregorio Farolfi
Author: Derek Keir ORCID iD
Author: Giacomo Corti
Author: Nicola Casagli

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